by The Oracle
We are near the halfway point of the 2024 Canterbury Park live racing season, coming off a nine-day break. Here is a look inside-the-numbers- at what has transpired on the race track so far. The following statistics are for thoroughbred races only.
The Odds:
It was no secret that last year the favorites were winning at a very high rate, ending the year winning 48% of the time. But as the Monty Python skit said way back in the early 1970’s: and now for something completely different!
Favorites are winning 32% of the thoroughbred races at Canterbury Park so far in 2024. This is seven percentage points lower than the national average over the past 3 months, and sixteen percentage points below the first half results in the 2023 Canterbury meet. I don’t recall a year where the favorites have done this poorly, but the chaos has resulted in some very big payouts and a few carryovers along the way. My guess is that winning favorites will regress towards the mean and hover around 40% over the second half of the meet, but only time will tell. Losing jockey Harry Hernandez and owner Robert Lothenbach from last year has had an impact on the dynamic of this years’ races, as they were both major forces in their respective categories.
Historically, turf racing at Canterbury Park has yielded a lower percentage of winning favorites than races on the main track. This is holding true this year, as favorites on the turf are winning at a 28% rate compared to 35% winning favorites on the dirt. The general rule of thumb that favorites win more often on the main track than on the turf should hold true for the remainder of the meet. The strongest category for winning favorites is the allowance/stakes races, where the favorites are winning 37% of the time.
Regarding extreme longshots, there have been five 20-1 and up winners this year. Big longshots are elusive at Canterbury Park, as 251 horses have gone to post at greater than 20-1 odds with only five winning. That’s a win percentage from that sample of just 2%.
The Jockeys:
Looking at the top ten jockeys in the standings, Luis Fuentes holds a seven-win lead over Eduardo Gallardo at the halfway point with 37 wins compared to 30 for Gallardo. Fuentes is holding his
own quite nicely from an ROI perspective, returning his backers $1.00 for every dollar wagered. Break-even is quite strong for a leading rider that is riding a lot of lower priced horses. However, the All-Star performer for best return-on-investment (ROI) was easily Kelsi Harr. Kelsi is currently sixth in the standings with 10 wins from 80 mounts (13%), and she is returning $1.94 for every dollar wagered on her mounts. Harr had an amazing day on June 29 when she won back-to-back turf races at 50-1 and 35-1, respectively. This is not to suggest that something like that is likely to repeat, but it is a reminder that the longshot winners are typically ridden by the jockeys that are not riding for the leading trainers, or dominating the standings from a win perspective. Finding these hidden gems can make one’s week, month, or even perhaps a year.
The Trainers:
Mac Robertson currently holds a sizable lead in the trainer standings with 19 wins so far this season. He’s also been solid in terms of returning money to his backers with an ROI of $0.94 per dollar wagered. He has to be considered the heavy favorite to win another training title at this point.
The top trainer from an ROI perspective during the first half was Coty Rosin with a record of nine wins from 29 starters and an ROI of $1.49 per dollar wagered. Rosin was strong on both turf and dirt, with five winners on the main track and four on the turf.
Summary:
That’s a brief look at how the favorites fared and who the top jockeys and trainers were over the first half of the Canterbury Park live meet from an ROI perspective. Good luck in the second half of the meet! As always, good luck when playing the 10% takeout Pick 5 wagers at Canterbury Park.
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