Typhoon Carina to affect more areas in Luzon, keep enhancing southwest monsoon

Signal No. 1 is raised in more areas due to Typhoon Carina (Gaemi) late Monday, July 22

MANILA, Philippines – Several other areas in Luzon are now expected to feel the effects of Typhoon Carina (Gaemi), which continued to strengthen over the Philippine Sea on Monday evening, July 22.

Carina’s maximum sustained winds increased from 120 kilometers per hour to 130 km/h, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in a briefing past 11 pm on Monday.

The typhoon’s gustiness is now up to 160 km/h from the previous 150 km/h.

PAGASA said Carina may reach its peak intensity within two days, and rapid intensification within the forecast period remains likely.

At 10 pm on Monday, the typhoon was located 375 kilometers east northeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan, or 375 kilometers east of Aparri, Cagayan. It slightly sped up, heading northwest at 15 km/h.

While Carina is not projected to hit land in the Philippines, it is still affecting parts of Luzon.

Here are the areas under Signal No. 1 as of 11 pm on Monday, where strong winds are expected:

• Batanes
• Babuyan Islands
• northern and eastern parts of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca, Lal-lo, Gonzaga, Buguey, Santa Teresita, Aparri, Camalaniugan, Ballesteros, Allacapan, Abulug, Pamplona, Claveria, Sanchez-Mira, Santa Praxedes, Lasam, Alcala)
• eastern part of Isabela (Divilacan, Palanan, Maconacon, Dinapigue, Tumauini, Ilagan City, San Mariano, Cabagan, San Pablo, Santa Maria)
• northern part of Apayao (Calanasan, Luna, Pudtol, Flora, Santa Marcela)
• northern part of Ilocos Norte (Pagudpud, Bangui, Adams, Dumalneg, Burgos, Vintar)
• northern part of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran)
• Polillo Islands
• Calaguas Islands
• northern part of Catanduanes (Pandan, Bagamanoc, Panganiban, Viga, Gigmoto, Caramoran)

Carina’s outer rainbands are bringing rain to some northern provinces, too.

Monday evening, July 22, to Tuesday evening, July 23

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 millimeters): Batanes, Babuyan Islands
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, northern and eastern parts of mainland Cagayan, eastern part of Isabela

Tuesday evening, July 23, to Wednesday evening, July 24

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Babuyan Islands

Wednesday evening, July 24, to Thursday evening, July 25

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Batanes

Floods and landslides are possible.

Carina also continues to enhance the southwest monsoon or habagat.

Rain from the enhanced southwest monsoon will persist in the next three days, with floods and landslides likely. Here is PAGASA’s updated rainfall forecast:

Tuesday, July 23

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Metro Manila, Ilocos Region, Abra, Benguet, Zambales, Bataan, Cavite, Occidental Mindoro
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): rest of Cordillera Administrative Region, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, Laguna, Batangas, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, northern part of Palawan including Cuyo and Calamian Islands, Aklan, Antique

Wednesday, July 24

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): La Union, Pangasinan, Benguet, Zambales, Bataan
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Metro Manila, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, rest of Cordillera Administrative Region, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, northern part of Palawan including Cuyo and Calamian Islands, Antique

Thursday, July 25

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Region, Abra, Benguet, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, Calamian Islands

Strong to gale-force gusts from the enhanced southwest monsoon will also be felt in these regions and provinces:

Tuesday, July 23

• Ilocos Region, Abra, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Zambales, Bataan, Aurora, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Davao Region

Wednesday, July 24

• Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Region, Abra, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao

Thursday, July 25

• Batanes, Babuyan Islands, IIocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Western Visayas, Negros Occidental, Northern Samar

For coastal waters, Carina and the enhanced southwest monsoon will cause moderate to rough seas in the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon (waves 2 to 4 meters high), as well as the western seaboards of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Western Visayas (waves 1.5 to 3 meters high) on Tuesday, July 23. PAGASA advised small boats not to venture out to sea.

The weather bureau added that moderate seas are expected in the eastern seaboards of the Visayas and Mindanao (waves 1.5 to 2 meters high) on Tuesday. Small boats must take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible.

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PAGASA now sees Carina making landfall in the northern part of Taiwan — which is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) — between Wednesday evening, July 24, and Thursday morning, July 25.

Then just hours later, it may exit PAR, cross the Taiwan Strait, and again make landfall in southeastern China on Thursday afternoon or evening.

“Its landfall over northern Taiwan and subsequently over southeastern China will trigger a weakening trend,” the weather bureau said.

Carina is the Philippines’ third tropical cyclone for 2024 and the second for July. PAGASA previously estimated there may be two or three tropical cyclones during the month. – Rappler.com