by Ning Xie, Haixin Fan, Xiaochun Liu, Feng Ye, Zhenlin Weng
Using weekly data from January 2020 to December 2021 on the prices of various links in the Chinese broiler industry chain and the COVID-19 epidemic, we employed a time-varying parametric vector auto-regressive (TVP-VAR) model to investigate the dynamic effects of public health events on price fluctuations of upstream, midstream, and downstream products in the Chinese broiler industry chain. Our findings showed that the COVID-19 epidemic had different effects on the prices of various broiler products, both in direction and magnitude, at different lags and time intervals. Chicken and live chicken prices were impacted the most, followed by broiler chick prices, while broiler feed prices were impacted the least. The epidemic constantly impacted broiler chick and chicken prices, while its effect on live chicken prices was initially negative but turned positive afterwards. Additionally, the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on broiler product prices consistently increased with more extended lag periods. The impulse responses at different epidemic time points were heterogeneous. With the results of this study, policy recommendations can be suggested to relevant government departments to optimize the prevention and control measures for public health emergencies and ensure price stability in the broiler industry.