She should avoid a coronation and instead consolidate Democratic support and build some momentum.
The fact that Joe Biden didn’t dillydally too long once concluding he needed to fold his campaign was a big gift to Democrats, who now have a bit more time to adjust to the new reality. And obviously his quick endorsement of Kamala Harris was a huge gift to his vice-president. But she now has some tricky straits to navigate in a short period of time.
Her first move was a smart one: announcing in response to Biden’s endorsement that she intended “to earn and win this nomination.” The earlier talk of her being “anointed” or benefiting from a “coronation” did her absolutely no good; nor did the common assumption that a handoff from the president meant there would be no “open convention.” As I have tried to explain, Biden has no power to transfer pledged delegates (who were not legally bound to him in any event) to Harris or anyone else, so the convention will be “open” even if there’s virtual unanimity. The veep has everything to gain from respecting the power of the convention and the party it represents to choose her without compulsion from Biden or anyone else. You’re already hearing some misguided talk of a “split” between the Clintons and Barack Obama because the former endorsed Harris right away while the latter expressed support for an “open” process. She needs both of those sentiments to dominate the conversation.
On the other hand, you can expect Harris’s backers to put steady pressure on potential rivals to take themselves out of the running by endorsing Biden’s choice. Under the convention rules, there can be no true “draft”: To be placed into nomination, a candidate must announce willingness to compete and obtain pledges of support from at least 300 delegates. So the Whitmers and the Newsoms and the Shapiros and so forth will have to make a reasonably quick decision given the DNC plan to hold a “virtual roll call” the week after August 1. The fact that some of these same names are circulating as potential Harris running mates could oil the engines of a partywide consensus behind the heir apparent, as will the likely inheritance of support from the Biden-Harris organization (not to mention donors!) that’s been built up all year.
But while she needs to carefully consolidate Democratic support, Harris also needs to manage her overall national profile and strike while the iron is hot. She will likely get a short-term polling bounce fed by Democrats relieved over the merciful end of the Biden post-debate saga and swing voters surprisingly given a respite from the much-dreaded Biden-Trump rematch. Soon enough, though, the GOP and MAGA movement will be training every weapon that have against her, and any honeymoon phase in the polls won’t last long. She will also have to plan a convention that is very likely to have a different tone from the one planned for months now.
We have no way of knowing whether Harris got any sort of advance notice of Biden’s statement of withdrawal. But without question, she has been liberated from the horrible position she had just yesterday of being simultaneously the biggest Biden loyalist in America and the object of massive speculation about an alternative path forward. She must now take full advantage of a unique opportunity.
