An old frontal boundary continues to sit near the region, which is serving as a trigger for storm development. This is due to an upper-level trough to our north, which brings an unstable atmosphere and atmospheric lift. Atmospheric moisture is also very high across the area, which is why storms are producing high rainfall rates. The strongest storms could produce rainfall rates of 2 to 2.5 inches per hour.
High-resolution models show storm development mainly along and south of I-10 both today and tomorrow, and also mostly during the morning hours. However, storms could develop across inland areas during the afternoon and evening hours as well. Flashing flooding could be an issue, like it was yesterday evening, if we get slow-moving or training thunderstorms.
This same weather pattern looks to continue throughout the week ahead, which will lead to consecutive days of high rain chances. It isn't until the weekend that we could see more sunshine and slightly lower storm chances.
Cumulatively, rainfall totals of 2-5 inches will be possible across the area this week, but it will be the isolated hot spots which will be worrisome. Isolated areas, especially ones which see flash flooding, could get double those amounts.
