Five Keys To Mets’ Second Half Success

The New York Mets (49-46) enter the second half in playoff position after going 27-13 over their past 40 games. With a tightly contested Wild Card race on the horizon that promises to go to the finish line, the team has to keep up their high level of play in order to clinch their spot in October for the second time in three years.

With that, let’s take a look at five keys to the club’s success over the final stretch of the season.

Kodai Senga’s Return 

While it would be unfair to classify the Mets’ rotation as a weak link, the unit also has yet to stand out or produce at a level where that statement can be completely disregarded.

New York’s starters have combined for a 4.25 ERA over 513 innings this season, ranking No. 1o in the National League and No. 2o overall. Furthermore, the group is responsible for the highest walk rate (9.5%) in the NL in conjunction with the fifth-worst strikeout rate (19.9%) and ninth-worst FIP (4.41) in MLB. Their ERA has dropped to 4.04 since the beginning of June, good for the seventh-best mark in the league, but their 4.73 FIP and 4.33 SIERA over that stretch suggest that those numbers may be a mirage.

The Mets’ pair of offseason acquisitions in Luis Severino and Sean Manaea have both shined throughout the year, posting ERAs of 3.78 and 3.46, respectively, though questions remain about whether or not they can truly front a rotation that has playoff aspirations. Jose Quintana and David Peterson have each turned in quality innings over the last month, though both carry worrying peripherals down the board and are far from sure things for a team that is in contention. With Tylor Megill in Triple-A after a run of poor outings and uncertainty surrounding Christian Scott, the Mets are in desperate need of a starting pitching boost as they enter a key stretch.

That’s where Kodai Senga enters the picture. A 2023 All-Star and NL Rookie of the Year finalist after posting a 2.98 ERA to go with 3.4 fWAR and 10.93 K/9 last season, Senga is on the cusp of a return to the big leagues at just the right time. He went down with a capsule strain in his right shoulder at the beginning of spring training that has kept him out for the entirety of the year up to this point, though he’s nearing the end of a rehab assignment that could place him on the Citi Field mound next weekend against the Atlanta Braves.

Senga’s presence at the top of the rotation has the potential to be a game-changer for a Mets team that needs an ace but likely isn’t in the market for one at the upcoming July 30 trade deadline. While he may not be completely up to speed right away and could struggle to replicate the dominance he showcased last season, Senga should still step in as the club’s top starter right away and is the type of arm that could thrive in the postseason should the Mets get to that point.

Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil Finding Their Stride

The Mets have sported one of the league’s most potent offenses all season, ranking inside the top-eight in runs scored (465), home runs (121), wRC+ (114) and OPS (.742). Contributions have come from up and down the lineup as the team is currently rostering 10 players with a wRC+ of at least 100 on the year, though two of the club’s starters have fallen short recently.

Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil have undoubtedly played a huge part in the team’s success in the past and aren’t necessarily the chief issues on the Mets’ radar. It should be noted, however, that both players more or less stumbled into the All-Star Break, though McNeil’s been mired in more of a prolonged slump.

Alonso has posted a .690 OPS with just three long balls over his past 22 contests and 82 at-bats. There’s no denying that some nitpicking is going on here, but the bottom line is that Alonso has to regain form for the Mets’ offense to keep up its torrid pace. That feels like a pretty safe bet considering his track record and the fact that his year-long numbers remain solid, even if they are slightly underwhelming. Still, New York can’t keep waiting on Alonso to kick things fully into gear for much longer in the middle of a playoff race.

As for McNeil, his fall from grace is unlike anything we’ve seen with the Mets in a long time. After being named an All-Star for the second time in his career in 2022 and capturing a batting title on a 101-win team, McNeil has become a shell of himself less than two years later. After a disappointing 2023 campaign, he is hitting .216/.276/.314 with a 73 wRC+ that ranks as the sixth-worst among qualified batters.

McNeil simply isn’t making hard contact and has poor expected stats, meaning there’s very little to feel good about regarding his production this season. Coupled with the fact that his defense has also dropped off considerably, it’s time to wonder whether or not the Mets would consider cutting ties with McNeil despite being in year two of a $50 million extension. He could still prove to be a valuable player due to his versatility and prior output, but the clock is ticking.

Bullpen Overcoming Its Struggles

This is the most obvious talking point when discussing what needs to go right in order for the Mets to reach the postseason in 2024.

Simply put, New York’s bullpen has been an abomination since the calendar flipped to June. After posting a 3.84 ERA with a league-high 10.74 K/9 over the first two months of the year, they have recorded a 4.84 ERA while allowing 1.47 HR/9. Those numbers have worsened even further since June 23, the date of Edwin Díaz’s 10-game suspension for “sticky stuff”. During that stretch, Mets relievers have posted an unfathomable 7.17 ERA and 5.80 FIP, both of which are the worst in the league, to go with a 1.63 WHIP.

Since that date, six pitchers have appeared in at least five games for New York. Of that group, only Dedniel Núñez (2.77 ERA) has an ERA under 6. Other names within that cluster include Jake Diekman (14.54 ERA), Reed Garrett (7.11 ERA), Adam Ottavino (6.75 ERA), Danny Young (12.46 ERA) and Adrian Houser (6.10 ERA).

In addition to Díaz’s suspension, which left the team with seven relievers, New York has recently dealt with injuries to the likes of Garrett, Sean Reid-Foley and Drew Smith, the latter of which is out for the remainder of the season after undergoing UCL surgery on his elbow. As a result, opportunities have arisen for depth arms such as Tyler Jay, Eric Orze, Matt Festa and Ty Adcock at the major league level. The issue with that development, however, is that those four arms allowed a combined 17 earned runs over their last six innings of work.

Believe it or not, there are reasons to believe the bullpen can turn things around. Núñez and Butto have been lights-out while Díaz hasn’t allowed a run since his return, plus Reid-Foley and Garrett likely aren’t too far away from coming back themselves. The addition of Phil Maton was a savvy move by president of baseball operations David Stearns, which we should expect more of as the Mets continue to scour the market, and overall the group as a whole should see their numbers progress back toward the mean.

Defense Needs To Improve

From the moment he stepped into his role with the Mets, Stearns preached about the significance of run prevention. His focus on that aspect of the game was apparent during his tenure with the Milwaukee Brewers, who ranked fourth in Defensive Runs Saved (242) and sixth in both Outs Above Average (65) and FanGraphs’ Defensive Runs Above Average (67.8) from his first full year on the job in 2016 through 2023.

When incorporating that philosophy last offseason, Stearns acquired a number of different players who could flash the leather and make things easier on the team’s pitching staff. The most high-profile signing on that front was Harrison Bader, a former Gold Glove Award winner who has built up a reputation as one of the league’s strongest defensive center fielders. Furthermore, he acquired outfielder Tyrone Taylor from his former employer via trade while also adding infielders Jose Iglesias, Joey Wendle and Zack Short.

For the most part, those moves have worked out as anticipated. Thus far, Bader has been worth six OAA and graded out rather favorably across the board while Iglesias has produced three DRS and two OAA in just 44 innings at third base. Taylor has settled in as a roughly league-average defender, and while both Wendle and Short didn’t call Queens home for long, neither player was a complete liability in the field.

Outside of Francisco Lindor and Francisco Alvarez, however, the Mets don’t have much else to write home about on that front. Starling Marte (-9 DRS, -9 OAA) and Alonso (-3 DRS, -6 OAA) are two of the worst defensive players in the league this season while Mark Vientos and McNeil have notably struggled as well. In total, New York sits insides the bottom-10 in DRS (-18), OAA (-7) and Ultimate Zone Rating (-5.1).

Fixing the defense on a full-scale level isn’t realistic in the middle of the season, but there are certainly some tweaks the organization can make to enhance it for the time being. The trade for Luis Torrens is certainly a pertinent example, as he was acquired for cash considerations from the New York Yankees and almost single-handedly turned the Mets’ fortunes around in the run game. They will likely explore similar options as they seek out upgrades at the deadline should they remain buyers, or perhaps they could mess with their defensive alignment. Whatever direction they take, finding some sort of solution for what is currently a well below-average unit is imperative for their playoff push.

Taking Advantage of Key Opportunities 

This last “key” is pretty self-explanatory, but it’s also the most important: the Mets have to take care of business against other contenders in the National League.

It goes without saying that the Mets should win games if they want to be successful in the second half. However, the team more or less controls its own destiny and has a good number of games remaining against teams either slightly ahead of or behind them in the Wild Card race that will inevitably dictate the standings at the end of the season.

New York has already clinched the tiebreaker against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals, meaning they would make the postseason over any of those three teams should they be deadlocked for a Wild Card spot after the final game of the year.

Building off of that, the Mets would earn the tiebreaker over the St. Louis Cardinals should they defeat them in a make-up game on August 5. They’re also in position to win their season series against the San Diego Padres (3-0 with three games left) and Cincinnati Reds (2-1 with three games left) while being tied with both the Arizona Diamondbacks and Atlanta Braves with three and seven games left against those clubs, respectively.

If the Mets can sustain the level of play they have exhibited since the beginning of June, there’s no reason to believe they can’t go out there and snatch a playoff spot after looking dead in the water just a short while ago. That’s always easier said than done, but the Mets don’t have to leave anything up to chance by rising to the occasion and stacking up wins down the stretch.

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