Let’s get serious
As the Guardians begin the last 64 games of the 2024 season, I’d like to see a few adjustments made to sustain the excellent performance they displayed in their first 98 games.
Guardians’ Hitters Need to See More Pitches
Overall for the season, the Guardians are fourth-worst in the majors at seeing pitches at only 13.553 pitches, coming out to an average of 142.7 pitches per game. However, coming into the last week of the season (and not counting a Kenta Maeda start), the team was averaging 143.7 pitches per game.
So, in non-Maeda games the week before the All-Star break, the team saw only 126.5 pitches per game, a pretty stark drop-off from their season average. Is this a sign of a team that was just tired and looking to get these games over with as quickly as possible, a result of a scouting report that said to attack Tigers and Rays pitchers as early in the count as possible, or some combination of the two? I don’t know, but I think the pendulum of “attack early in counts” needs to swing a little more towards “work yourself into longer at-bats” to get the offense back on track.
Call-Up Kyle Manzardo
It didn’t go well for Kyle the first time. That’s ok. A 60 wRC+ in 87 major-league plate appearances tells you essentially nothing. The kid has a 147 wRC+ in Columbus. It’s time to give him a chance to hit RHP as often as possible in the big leagues. You traded a viable starting pitching arm so he could help your anemic offense. It’s put up or shut up time, front office and Manzardo.
Start Angel Martinez in Center-Field Until He Indicates That’s a Bad Idea
He has 1 DRS and 0 OAA in centerfield so far and a 146 wRC+. He has a .345 xwOBA as compared to a .311 xwOBA for Tyler Freeman. I’d like to continue to mix Freeman in at SS and CF, but until Martinez shows he’s not the player he currently looks like he is, it’s time to ride the hot hand.
Start Daniel Schneemann at Shortstop as Often as Possible with Brayan Rocchio as a Defensive Replacement
So far, Schneemann appears competent at shortstop (0 OAA and -1 DRS) and he has Rocchio by .033 xWOBA. It makes sense to give him as many at-bats as possible and let Rocchio come in to lock down games defensively (as well as get some spot starts). Again, I would not mind seeing Freeman get some chances at short, also, if the team can move off the “Freeman is now a full-time outfielder” track.
Platoon Will Brennan and Jhonkensy Noel in Right-Field
Brennan has a 114 wRC+ against RHP and Noel has a 165 wRC+ vs. LHP. You can mix some Fry and Schneemann in here, of course, but I’d like to see a steady diet of this platoon entering the trade deadline to get a sense of whether some last minute upgrade in right-field is needed or not.
Limit Austin Hedges Plate Appearances Even More Than They Have Been
I get why Hedges is here. I see his catching skills popping off my screen. I know his clubhouse vibes are unmatched. I just can’t take a 15 wRC+ batting with anything meaningful in doubt after the sixth inning. His .167 xwOBA is somehow worse than his .183 wOBA. Uncle. Unfortunately, if Fry’s elbow is still barking, I guess we are stuck with more Hedges than we’d likem but it may be time to explore IL-ing Fry and finding an alternate option for third catcher at this point. Any dreams (promoted by Tom Hamilton) that Hedges had worked on his hitting in the offseason and might be something more like a guy who can get a hit now and then should be long gone by now.
Fix the Starting Pitching
It’s that easy, guys. The starting pitching is killing this team, all we have to do is fix it. While I’m encouraged by Carlos Carrasco’s recent starts and optimistic about Tanner Bibee getting back on track, Gavin Williams continuing to grow and Lively continuing to be the most reliable innings-eater on the team, it’s obviously clear that the team HAS to trade for a reliable starting pitcher that they’d feel comfortable starting in a playoff series. We’ll have more on the potential options in the coming days but one thing I want to say is that IF ownership is willing to put up a little investment in terms of money, there will absolutely be guys the team can acquire. Maybe even including a better prospect helps Toronto agree to cover most of a Kevin Guasman’s salary for 2024, or Texas for Nate Eovaldi in 2024.
But, any way you look at it, the Guardians can get a starter if they are willing to take on some money and part with someone decent from a loaded farm system. They also have the prospect capital to get one of the cheaper options if that’s the track they are determined to travel. Either way, get a deal done. We’re not going to accept “We were close but just couldn’t quite push a deal across the finish line, here’s Matt Boyd and an Austin Gomber trade.” The Guardians are in a position where they need to take the risk needed to add proven veteran pitching while hoping their young arms and cagey vet can provide the rest of what they need.
Also, I will note that recent, excellent performances from Doug Nikhazy have me advocating for him to get the next look for a spot start over “Spencer Howard.” I also would love the team to give a look to whatever Akron Rubber Ducks starter they deem most major-league ready if needed, whether it be Ryan Webb, Aaron Davenport, Tommy Mace or Austin Peterson. Each starting pitcher in the organization with the best shot of getting major league hitters out should be the ones getting a start every fifth day. The time to experiment is over.
I’m, as always, optimistic about the Guardians’ chances of making a playoff run this season. But, the time is now to capitalize on a good April-June and turn the month of July around before it’s too late, while setting up (via trade) for a good August-October.
