LPAs develop into tropical depressions Butchoy, Carina

Tropical Depression Butchoy and Tropical Depression Carina are the Philippines' second and third tropical cyclones for 2024, respectively

MANILA, Philippines – The two low pressure areas (LPAs) inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) both developed into tropical depressions on Friday evening, July 19.

Their local names are Butchoy and Carina, as the country’s second and third tropical cyclones for 2024, respectively.

The LPA over the West Philippine Sea became Butchoy, while the LPA over the Philippine Sea is now Carina.

Butchoy, enhanced southwest monsoon

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in a bulletin that Butchoy was located 535 kilometers west of Tanauan City, Batangas, as of 10 pm on Friday.

The tropical depression is moving west or away from Philippine landmass at 25 kilometers per hour (km/h). At this pace, it could exit PAR within 12 hours or by Saturday, July 20.

As an LPA, it brought heavy rain to parts of the country in the past few days. But since Butchoy is already moving away from land, it is not directly bringing rain to the country, according to PAGASA. There are no tropical cyclone wind signals raised due to Butchoy as well.

So far, Butchoy has maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. PAGASA said Butchoy “will likely have limited intensification within the next two days,” but may strengthen into a tropical storm by Saturday.

While there is no rain from Butchoy, the tropical depression is enhancing the southwest monsoon or habagat.

The southwest monsoon may trigger moderate to heavy rain (50 to 100 millimeters) in the western part of Luzon in the next three days, particularly in the following provinces:

Saturday, July 20

• northern part of Palawan, Occidental Mindoro

Sunday, July 21

• Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, northern part of Palawan

Monday, July 22

• Ilocos Region, Zambales, Bataan, northern part of Palawan, Occidental Mindoro

PAGASA added that Butchoy and the southwest monsoon will cause moderate seas in the northern and western seaboards of Luzon, with waves 1 to 2 meters high. The weather bureau advised small vessels to take precautionary measures.

After its expected exit from PAR, Butchoy could make landfall in Hainan, China, by late Sunday, July 21, or early Monday, July 22. PAGASA said rapid weakening is possible after the tropical cyclone hits Hainan.

Carina

Meanwhile, Carina was located 780 kilometers east of Virac, Catanduanes, at 10 pm on Friday. It is heading west northwest at 20 km/h.

This tropical depression has maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h.

PAGASA said Carina “will generally have a mainly offshore path over the next five days” and may stay far from Philippine landmass.

Due to its projected path, it is “less likely” to trigger heavy rain in the next three days, and there are also no tropical cyclone wind signals in effect.

“However, there may be changes in the current forecast scenario in the succeeding bulletins, which may affect the heavy rainfall outlook within the forecast period,” added the weather bureau.

Carina is also expected to begin enhancing the southwest monsoon on Sunday.

In addition, Carina and the southwest monsoon will cause moderate seas in the eastern seaboard of Mindanao. Waves are also seen to be 1 to 2 meters high.

As for intensity, Carina could become a tropical storm by Sunday, a severe tropical storm by Monday, and a typhoon by Tuesday, July 23.

It might leave PAR on Wednesday, July 24.

PAGASA previously estimated there may be two or three tropical cyclones in July. – Rappler.com