Scottie Scheffler will be there come Sunday afternoon, as he is playing too well from tee-to-green not to contend.
Raise your hand if you have heard this before: Scottie Scheffler nearly led the field in strokes gained approaching the green but ranked towards the bottom in putting during round one of The Open Championship.
The World No. 1 could not buy a bucket, scraping edges and lipping out more than one could count. He hit 13-of-18 greens, giving himself plenty of opportunities, but made only 57 feet of putts, good for 109th among the 158-man field.
“It’s definitely frustrating when you’re watching it three feet out, and you think it’s going to go in, and it just doesn’t,” Scheffler said after his 1-under 70.
“At the end of the day, I pride myself on preparation and showing up ready to go, and if I hit a really good putt from 15 or 20 feet— the greens aren’t perfect. It’s not a perfect surface. You get wind and all kinds of stuff—and I’m lipping out, it’s almost like you’re just playing a numbers game. If I continue hitting really good putts, they will eventually fall in.”
Scheffler’s positive outlook helps explain why he is currently the best player in the world. He remains patient and plays conservatively, a strategy Tiger Woods employed consistently in his prime. If a player fails to do so, trouble and big numbers present themselves rather quickly. Just ask Rory McIlroy or Bryson DeChambeau after their rounds on Thursday.
Nevertheless, Scheffler did make four birdies on Thursday, two of which came on the 16th and 18th holes late in his round. But he made three bogies due to the blistering 25-mile-per-hour winds from the south. Throw in some precipitation, too, and the challenge becomes even more difficult.
“I don’t know if confusing is the right word; it's just challenging, especially when you get the rain involved,” Scheffler said of the conditions.
“When you get a wet ball into the wind, it’s amazing how short it goes.”
Even though he made a couple of mistakes on Thursday and sits five off the lead, Scheffler remains the live-odds on favorite per DraftKings, and rightfully so.
He leads the tour in dozens of categories, but most importantly, in greens in regulation, bogey avoidance, birdies per round, and bounce-back percentage, essential attributes that specifically apply to Royal Troon.
Scheffler makes a ton of birdies and rarely makes mistakes. But when he does stumble, he rebounds with a birdie nearly 35% of the time.
More trouble will present itself as the week wears on, as the conditions will not lighten up. That will eliminate many other players with flaws in their games or those who did not hit it as solidly as others. A strong, blistering wind often gobbles up poorly struck shots. Yet Scheffler does not have to worry about that. He routinely compresses the ball in the center of the club face and finds the center of the green more so than any other player on the planet. The only worry he should have going into the final 54 holes is if he can get more putts to fall into the hole. But as he said, it’s a numbers game, and they will undoubtedly drop in at some point. The law of averages says so.
On top of that, Scheffler has history on his side.
According to golf statistician Justin Ray, each of the last 24 Open Champions has been within five shots of the lead after round one. That eliminates all but 141 players in the field. Scheffler currently sits in a tie for 11th and five back of Daniel Brown, the 272nd-ranked player in the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR), who fired a 6-under 65 in the first round of his major career.
In all likelihood, Brown will come back to the field a bit, but even if he doesn’t, the odds are that Scheffler will catch him. He’s hitting the ball too well from tee to green, not to. Other major champions are on the leaderboard, too, notably Shane Lowry, Justin Rose, Justin Thomas, and Xander Schauffele. They will most certainly impact how the 152nd Open shakes out, but watch out for Scheffler, who feels confident in himself and his putter—a dangerous combination—despite the flat stick frustrating him for most of the day.
“I don’t really feel like I made many putts, but I felt like I hit a lot of quality putts, which for me is really good,” Scheffler said.
“I felt like all day I was hitting really good putts that were either lipping out or going right by the edge. Hopefully, just continue to hit good putts for the next couple of days, and I’ll see where it takes me.”
That could lead Scheffler to hoist the Claret Jug at this rate. At the same time, The Open is the most unpredictable of them all, even for the World No. 1. Who knows how this week at Royal Troon will shake out, but the best player is lurking dangerously on the leaderboard, which should scare everyone else.
Jack Milko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation’s Playing Through. Be sure to check out @_PlayingThrough for more golf coverage. You can follow him on Twitter @jack_milko as well.
