The Conservative party is reeling from one of the biggest blows in its history after returning just 121 MPs in the recent election – a loss of 251 seats in the House of Commons.
Leader Rishi Sunak had no choice but to step down after such a disaster. And after 14 years in power, the Tories must now find someone else to take them forward.
The rest of the summer and early autumn, including the party conference at the end of September, will now be taken up with a fierce internal battle over who is to become the next leader.
Reduced to a parliamentary party with only a few MPs, the choice is rather limited.
You might hope, all the same, that there will be a serious discussion about the future. When businesses lose market share to such a dramatic extent most would question whether their brand and product range are in need of reinvention. The voters have spoken, and they have rejected what was on offer.
The way ahead is complicated. A lot of noise and energy is emerging on the far right in the shape of the Reform party. But winning back seats will require appealing to more moderate voters who, for now, have chosen to support Labour and the Liberal Democrats. This is the dilemma a new leader will have to confront.
In a briefing from the Conservative-supporting Centre for Policy Studies thinktank, in its regular CapX email, its view was clear: “The country has voted for a party dressed in Tory clothes. Labour won by positioning themselves as the party of economic growth, stability and moderation … the next Conservative leader has an opportunity to stand up and reclaim a very different answer: one that relies on low taxes, low regulation and letting the energy and entrepreneurialism of the British people rip.”
Is this what the potential leadership candidates are seeking to do? How will they position the party in today’s crowded and volatile political market place?
The most outspoken candidate (who is still just about in the race) is Suella Braverman, the former home secretary. She is a “culture warrior” who denounces what she calls the “woke virus”, and seeks reconciliation and perhaps eventually a full merger with Nigel Farage and the Reform party. Early polling of members suggests Braverman’s chances do not look good.
Her rhetoric is not subtle. As with at least one other potential candidate, Kemi Badenoch, Braverman rejects what she regards as politically correct language and attitudes. She would also favour tax cuts to invigorate the economy.
But along with her fellow candidates, Braverman has to deal with the troubling precedent and legacy of Liz Truss’s 49 days in office, and her and Kwasi Kwarteng’s disastrous tax-slashing budget. Such a crude, simplistic worship of tax cuts and free markets can be seen as “a parody of Thatcherism”, as the more moderate former Tory MP Damian Green put it.
Badenoch, the former business secretary, is a marginally calmer voice on policy matters compared with Braverman, but that is not saying much. She remains a proud champion of Brexit, despite the evidence which points to severe economic harm done to the UK’s economy by leaving the single market and customs union.
She also trumpeted trade agreements with other countries which, in the main, simply rolled over the terms and conditions of previous agreements. But, so far, she remains the most popular choice among members polled.
Priti Patel, another former home secretary, had a career in corporate PR before getting elected as an MP. Also a committed Brexiteer, she now stands as an unlikely unity candidate. She too will have to find the right language and tone to promote her Thatcherite views without drawing any comparisons to the unlamented Truss.
The extreme positions adopted by Braverman and Badenoch may help her come across as a more rational choice.
Robert Jenrick is a former Remain supporter who has moved ever further to the right after a stint at the Home Office. And while he too might be seen as an uncomplicatedly “pro-business” candidate, an earlier run-in with the property developer Richard Desmond, when Jenrick was housing minister, caused controversy and cast a cloud over him. Braverman has dismissed him as a “centrist” – which reveals a curious notion of what she thinks constitutes centrism.
The more moderate end of the Conservative party has three potential candidates, Tom Tugendhat, James Cleverly and Victoria Atkins. Cleverly was at least a committed Brexiteer, unlike Tugendhat and Atkins, which gives him a slight advantage. But even he may struggle to adopt the tone and language the party members want from its next leader.
Why would anyone even want to become leader in these circumstances? A competent Labour government may be in office for the next ten years, at least. But ambitious politicians do not think like this.
They will argue that, in a time of greater voter volatility, a big Labour majority could disappear almost as quickly as it came. Ambition is a renewable resource, they will say.
For now, the Tories have lost a lot of their old friends, especially in the world of business. One prominent Conservative temporarily helped the party make amends.
The former chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, steadied the situation in the wake of the Truss-Kwarteng budget. He stopped attacking the Bank of England and the Office for Budget Responsibility.
He introduced mostly sensible measures, although it could be argued his cuts in national insurance were politically a failure as well as fiscally unwise. His spending forecasts left a miserable legacy for the incoming Labour government.
At least he came across as sane and essentially competent. But, on this occasion, Hunt is not running to be leader.
Stefan Stern does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
