Summary and Key Points: Retired U.S. Army General Mark Milley predicts that robots and autonomous systems could comprise up to one-third of the U.S. military by 2039, potentially operated and commanded by artificial intelligence (AI).
-Current policies mandate human control over lethal munitions, but AI advancements may change this. As recruitment struggles persist, autonomous systems are increasingly viewed as a solution.
-The U.S. Army, Air Force, and Navy are integrating AI and robotics into their operations. However, the ethical implications of AI making life-and-death decisions remain a concern. Other nations, including China and Russia, are also developing autonomous military platforms, raising global stakes.
In what could almost certainly sound like the backstory for a future science fiction film, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said that the U.S. military could see one-third of its force composed of robots and other autonomous systems by the end of 2039.
Cue the theme to The Terminator, and plan for the rise of the machines!
“Ten to fifteen years from now, my guess is a third, maybe 25% to a third of the U.S. military will be robotic,” retired U.S. Army general Mark Milley explained earlier this month at an Axios event to launch the outlet’s “Future of Defense” newsletter.
These wouldn’t be remotely controlled systems, like most of today’s unmanned aerial systems, but rather robotic platforms that could be controlled and even directly commanded by artificial intelligence (AI) systems. However, Milley acknowledged that technology doesn’t have any mortality. For that reason, current U.S. policy still stipulates that a human operator is in control when it comes to the use of lethal munitions and that it requires a human to maintain the “ethical framework” for any decisionmaking.
Of course, Milley further explained that as AI development advances, there could be a situation where AI is allowed to determine when to engage with an enemy.
“You can imagine a future from a technical standpoint [where] a machine enabled by AI, a robot enabled by AI, could make its own decisions,” Milley noted. “Is that something the world wants?”
U.S. military recruitment efforts have failed to meet demand, and the Pentagon has responded by embracing autonomous systems from small unmanned drones to systems on the Gerald R. Ford-class nuclear-powered supercarriers. As the services face recruiting and retention challenges, AI-controlled systems could help fill the ranks.
According to the report from Axios, the U.S. Army is looking at human-machine integrated formations, the Air Force is now developing its Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) that would serve as a “loyal wingman” to a manned fighter, and the U.S. Navy’s “hybrid fleet” of the future could consist of unmanned surface and underwater vehicles serving alongside its manned combatants.
Yet for years, tech leaders have warned that AI should not be trusted to make life-and-death decisions. These concerns are likely to grow as a significant portion of the military could be robotic—which will leave fewer humans in charge.
Even as the United States is advancing this technology, while being cautious in how AI is employed, other countries are also adopting robotic platforms. Near-peer adversaries Russia and China have each begun to field autonomous weapons platforms.
As the Defense Post reported, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has begun developing its own unmanned undersea vehicles, while just last month Beijing unveiled a robot dog armed with a machine gun mounted on its back! Chinese officials have suggested the robotic dog would be employed to conduct reconnaissance, identify an enemy, and then “strike the target.”
A future conflict could see robots fighting robots, but the concern remains that those robots could decide the real enemy is their maker!
Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org.
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