It’s the moment you’ve all been waiting for: what does some dude who blogs from his bedroom, and is often wrong about prospects, think of the A’s choices in the 2024 draft? (In fairness, everyone is often wrong about prospects and my bedroom is quite lovely.)
Here is my overall grade for the A’s, along with my take on the key first few selections. Overall grade: B. Meaning I think the A’s generally did well even if it wasn’t a 2021 OMG slam dunk.
#4: 1B Nick Kurtz
This was a crucial pick given that the A’s haven’t drafted as high as #4 for a long time and, with David Forst having botched the rebuild trades something fierce, Oakland needed to get an infusion of top talent into the system with its 2023-24 1st round selections. So far so good with Jacob Wilson, now what about Kurtz?
With the caveat that Kurtz was behind 2B/SS JJ Wetherholt and 1B/P Jac Caglionone on my personal wish list going in, I have to say that as the dust clears I am warming up to the choice of Kurtz.
Kurtz may have been the best pure hitter available, carrying less risk than the “high chase rate” Caglionone. Wetherholt was my first choice, but I also don’t have the inside info on medicals to know if perhaps his hamstring issues were more of a legitimtate concern than Kurtz’ shoulder injury, especially given the position each plays.
Also, while scouting reports seem to vary on this the consensus appears to be that in fact Kurtz has a chance to be an excellent defensive 1Bman whose power, eye, and defense could make him a bit of a Matt Olson protege. Obviously grabbing the next Olson with the #4 pick would be just fine.
I think some of the unrest around the pick is that a 1Bman has limited value. But if the BPA plays 1B, if you need impact hitters and the best hitter is a 1Bman, I don’t think position alone should deter you. A great 1Bman is extremely valuable, as we see with Freddie Freeman and Olson, or before them Jim Thome, Justin Morneau and so on.
As for comps, it’s always tempting and irresponsible to somewhat recklessly name stars but with his skill set as described a player Kurtz kinds of reminds me of in type and scope, potentially, is John Olerud. That’s a 57.3 WAR player I just compared Kurtz to, and while most likely Kurtz will not rise to Olerud’s level, or that of Thome (to whom he has also been compared), his ceiling is high and if he turns out to be the best hitter in the draft I’m fine with the A’s taking a 1Bman and making it Kurtz.
#40 - 3B Tommy White
I am a bit agnostic over the selection of White, but I suspect he will hit while I am not so sure about his defense at 3B. The 40th pick is high enough that you should get someone likely to succeed, but it’s also low enough that you are bound to get someone perfectly likely to flame out.
We have heard many times before about players who, based on their skill set and body type, seemed risky to stick at 3B but we were told “We think he can...” or “We think he might be able to...”
Renato Nuñez, Ryon Healy, Brett Wallace...You see the pattern. On the flip side, there is some precedent for a “tank” body to stick at 3B despite the optics: Pablo Sandoval and Rafael Devers are examples and of course they hit enough that you were willing to live with the shortcomings they had/have.
Do I think White can stick at 3B like some scouts and coaches insist he can based on improvements he made in the past year? I’m not holding my breath, but I won’t rule it out until I watch him try.
Do I think White can hit at the big league level? As I understand it he has two big strengths and one big weakness. The strengths are plus bat speed and the bat-to-ball skills we see with Colby Thomas. The weakness is his tendency to chase and expand the strike zone, again similar to Thomas.
If White is another Thomas as a hitter, that’s a good thing as Colby is a step away from the big leagues and still looks like a legitimate — if not slam dunk — prospect. However, even if White and Thomas have identical MLB career slash lines, and they are good ones, it remains to be seen whether White offers defensive value at 3B or anywhere.
So a decent pick, but not one that has me jumping up and down with glee. Which is about what you should expect to get at #40.
#73 - P Gage Jump
Ranked #62 by MLB the A’s have finally stopped reaching with every pick, and Jump gets a solid 50 grade ranking overall.
There are no guarantees with draft selections, and even less so with pitchers, but Jump gives the A’s a pitching prospect that should rank high in their system immediately (joining Luis Morales and Chen Zhong-Ao Zhuang) and that was a dire need.
#75 - SS Joshua Kuroda-Grauer
I especially like this pick, particularly as we navigate the strikeout era of the 100 MPH fastball, 92 MPH splitter — the “swing and miss” era.
Players like Wilson, and hopefully Kuroda-Grauer, are going to be a tick more valuable right now than they would have been in other generations, and in Kuroda-Grauer the A’s snagged a player who if he doesn’t stick at SS is regarded as potentially being a “plus defensive 2Bman”.
Picks 5 And Beyond...
As you travel farther down the draft list, you get some players whose flaws make them, in my opinion, lottery picks, and Oakland next selection, Cal OFer Rodney Green, strikes me as being in that camp.
But they also got some talent later on that I feel is better than you would expect, and I would put SP Josiah Romeo on that list. The A’s loaded up on some pitching, as they generally do in the mid-later rounds sometimes to great success (Tim Hudson, 6th round, Rich Harden, 17th round).
Overall, I feel it was a solid, if not spectacular, draft for the A’s — one that Kurtz alone could easily make look terrific or make look disastrous, depending on how he fares compared to his peers the A’s passed on to make the selection.
And as always, time will tell. Your thoughts?
