Four prominent Democrats would perform significantly better than President Biden in key swing states if they replaced him as the party’s presumptive nominee, according to a memo from a Democratic-funded polling group.
The BlueLabs draft memo, first acquired by Politico, found that “nearly every tested Democrat performs better than the President” in the swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
The memo singled out four Democrats who bested Biden’s results by roughly 5 points overall across the battleground states: Sen. Mark Kelly (Ariz.), Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
Vice President Harris also outperformed Biden in polling but by a smaller margin than the top four, according to the memo.
“Voters are looking for a fresh face. Those more closely tied to the current administration perform relatively worse than other tested candidates,” according to the memo.
Biden has faced increasing calls from members of Congress to leave the presidential race over fears that he can’t defeat former President Trump in November, following a weak first debate performance. Biden has adamantly refused the calls.
Whitmer has been a popular name among those who have called on Biden to leave the race, though she has called talk of replacing Biden a distraction. Whitmer has also said, however, that she would be open to serving as vice president should Biden exit the ticket.
Both Moore and Shapiro are relative newcomers to the national political stage, having been elected to lead their respective states in 2022. Kelly has been a senator since 2020 and fairly comfortably fended off a Trump-backed challenger in 2022.
The memo noted that three of the four alternatives tested are from battleground states, but said "all of them performed well in other states as well."
Polling also found that about 3 percent of Trump voters would back an alternative Democrat if Biden steps aside, and about 1 percent of Biden voters would switch to Trump if the president is no longer on the ticket.
Overall, the memo said Trump leads the presidential race “comfortably” as of now.
Former Trump has a 1.7 percentage point lead over Biden in national polling, according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ average of polls.
