Immediately following the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, social media predictably erupted with conspiracy theories. Phrases like “they tried to kill Trump” are already making the rounds — with "they" being the nebulous, esoteric entity that conspiracies often invoke.
While we await more information on this assassination attempt, we shouldn’t entertain unfounded claims. ESuch speculation not only muddies the waters but also fuels a dangerous cycle of misinformation, paranoia and division.
Before addressing the formation of such conspiracy theories, it’s essential to grieve with those directly affected by this tragic event. The assassination attempt not only targeted a former president and current candidate, but it resulted in the death of at least one spectator. This loss of life is a somber reminder of the human cost behind political violence and irrationality.
But conspiracy theories only worsen this tragedy and increase irrationality.
Understanding the “proportionality bias” — the inclination to believe that big events must stem from big causes — can prove helpful in understanding our susceptibility to conspiracy theories.
When something as significant as an assassination attempt occurs, it seems too important to result solely from a lone, unhinged gunman. Instead, seeking comfort from the thought that our lives are not subject to such random events, the human mind gravitates toward the idea that a powerful, shadowy group must be responsible and that we are smart enough to discover it.
To understand this bias better, compare the conspiracy theories surrounding the assassination of President John F. Kennedy with those related to the attempted assassination of President Ronald Reagan.
JFK’s assassination had profound consequences: an abrupt end of a presidency, a deep trauma inflicted on the nation and geopolitical implications during the height of the Cold War. Given these enormous consequences, countless conspiracy theories have flourished for decades, involving everyone from the Mafia to the CIA to foreign governments.
In contrast, when John Hinckley Jr. attempted to assassinate Ronald Reagan, the consequences were comparatively minor. Reagan survived, and despite the seriousness of the event, the nation quickly moved on. As a result, there are few conspiracy theories surrounding this incident.
The difference can be explained by proportionality bias: The greater the perceived impact of an event, the more likely people are to believe that it must have been caused by a significant, coordinated effort. Had Hinckley succeeded with his plans, you can bet the conspiracy theories would abound.
The same dynamic is now at play with the attempted assassination of Trump. But unlike during Hinckley’s attempted assassination, we now live in a 24-hour news cycle, and social media empowers everyone to share their opinions.
Moreover, Trump is an atypical candidate, and this election has stoked atypical passions. As a result, many are already crafting elaborate and unfounded narratives because the event’s potential consequences are immense during this high-stakes election cycle.
But we should resist the urge to fill in the blanks with unfounded theories. Doing so distracts from the factual investigation that needs to take place and can lead to further societal division and distrust.
As Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman stated, “We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events.”
In times of growing distrust, the truth is often more mundane than the stories our minds create. And conspiracy theories do not aid our understanding of the situation. Instead, it increases the likelihood of a warped democracy and heightened irrationality.
By resisting the allure of conspiracy theories, we uphold the principles of rationality and truth — principles foundational to a healthy, functioning democracy. Our commitment to these principles is more important now than ever.
Greg Osborne teaches legal ethics at the University of Utah’s S.J. Quinney College of Law and is general counsel to MarketDial Inc.
