For the 10th time in the tournament’s history, Scotland’s Royal Troon will host The Open as golf returns home for the final major of the year.
That only sounds like Troon has hosted The Open far too many times until you remember this year is the 152nd edition — and the last time Troon hosted was in 2016, when Henrik Stetson held off Phil Mickelson by three strokes to win the title.
Six different champions have emerged in the six Open Championships since and it’s starting to feel like we’ll be going seven-for-seven.
An absolutely stacked field has brought the biggest names from the PGA Tour, LIV Golf, DP World Tour and quite a few notable amateurs to Scotland. Let’s breakdown how to bet on them.
All odds via BetMGM
At this point, betting on Scottie Scheffler (+550) doesn’t really make a ton of sense. He’ll rightfully be the unquestioned favorite in every tournament he enters and the odds just don’t produce enough bang for the literal bucks you have to put down for it to make sense. So let’s forget the No. 1 golfer in the world for now. The Open could really go any number of ways, but these are the three players we feel most confident in.
Ludvig Åberg (+1400)
Coming off a meltdown at the Genesis Scottish Open that saw him go from Sunday favorite to T4 finish, Åberg is still a very good bet for The Open. Troon features three Par 5s over 570 yards (the longest is the 623-yard No. 6) that should allow him plenty of opportunities to show his distance off the tee and an elite scrambling ability. Just hope his putting shows up.
Collin Morikawa (+1600)
Morikawa won The Open in 2021 and is rounding into form to do it again. The 27-year-old hasn’t posted a score over 69 in his last eight rounds. Already second in the PGA with 4.46 birdies per round, Morikawa is also second in driving accuracy and plays pretty well in the rainy, windy conditions he’s likely to experience in Scotland.
Tommy Fleetwood (+2500)
Runner-up to Shane Lowry at The Open in 2019, it feels like this really could be Fleetwood’s moment after consecutive top-10 finishes at the tournament. Not only does he already top-16 finishes at this year’s Masters and U.S. Open, he’s consistently one of the best golfers in inclement weather,
Rory McIlroy (-135)
Go ahead and call me a coward for not taking Rory outright, but I’m still shaken from his meltdown on the final holes of the U.S. Open. Missing two putts inside three feet to lose isn’t something you just get over. But hopefully the last month helped clear his head a bit. McIlroy nearly looked like the best version of himself at the Scottish Open, going 65-66-67-68 and finishing T4. The last time The Open was at Royal Troon, McIlroy finished in fifth place, so yeah, we’ll take near even odds on Top 10 and (hopefully) avoid the Rory rollercoaster.
Tiger Woods (-350)
The odds tell the whole story here. Tiger hasn’t been in his best shape in quite awhile and it’s hard to see how walking 18 holes in back-to-back days of wind and rain are going to make him feel comfortable with, well, anything out there. Here’s hoping I’m wrong.
Jordan Spieth (+160)
It’s not that Spieth missed the cut at the Scottish Open, or even that he placed T41 at the U.S. Open that has me concerned most here. It’s that he was T26 at the John Deere Classic two weeks ago — an event most of the biggest names in the sport skip — with a final score of 15-under par that looks nice, until you realize the winner was Davis Thompson at 28-under. Someone needs to try unplugging Spieth and plugging him back in.
Aaron Rai (+5500)
Rai’s last three outings: T2 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, T7 at the John Deere Classic, T4 at the Genesis Scottish Open. The Wolverhampton native is 4th in strokes gained total, 7th in strokes gained on approach and first in driving accuracy.
Alex Noren (+8000)
Don’t let Noren’s bleh Saturday at the Scottish Open distract you from the fact he still finished T10 with rounds of 65-66-71-65. He’s one of the best scramblers on Tour and that skill will be needed at Royal Troon.
The purse for The Open is $17 million and if you haven’t used your Morikawa pick, now is the time do so. If you’ve been waiting to hit McIlroy here, go for it. If you have neither available, Shane Lowry, Tyrell Hatton and Brooks Koepka are relatively safe options.
Calum Scott (+500)
No, not the singer. The 20-year-old from Scotland who plays for the same Texas Tech program that made Ludvig Åberg a name to know before he even turned pro. He’s up to No. 14 in the amateur world rankings with 11 top-10 finishes over the last two years.
