The bonus cap sets an aggregate limit for a team to spend on its selections in the first ten rounds and also limits teams from spending over $150,000 on players taken after the 10th round (the excess on any late-round bonuses will count against the bonus pool). Boston's cap is $10,521,600 this year. If the club exceeds its pool: (1) by 0-5%, it will be charged a 75% tax on the excess; (2) by 5-10%, it will pay the same tax and will also lose its first-round pick next season; (3) by 10-15%, it will be charged a 100% tax on the excess and lose its first- and second-round picks next season; and (4) by more than 15%, 100% tax on the excess and lose its next two first-round picks.
Those are obviously harsh penalties, making it highly unlikely that the Red Sox will go more than 5% over the pool limit in any year. However, the team has shown that it is willing to pay the requisite tax and go up to 5% over the cap, which would place the team's spending limit (not counting the first $150,000 given to any pick after the 10th round) at about $11,047,680. One other wrinkle to remember is that if Boston fails to sign any of its picks from the first 10 rounds, the team's pool will be reduced by the slot amount for the unsigned player's draft position. Here are the bonus slots for each of Boston's top picks:
1st round: $5,484,600
2nd round: $1,846,400
3rd round: $878.800
4th round: $630,900
5th round: $457,900
6th round: $351,100
7th round: $274,600
8th round: $219,900
9th round: $194,600
10th round: $182,800
At first blush, it appears that all of Boston's picks in the first 10 rounds are signable, and some draftees may already have pre-draft deals in place. This is pure speculation, but first round pick
Braden Montgomery could be slightly over slot while second round pick
Payton Tolle may be under slot. Eighth rounder Conrad Cason may require a big bonus to sign him away from his commitment to Mississippi State.
After the 10th round, one of the more intriguing signability draftees is 12th rounder Brady Tygart. He's a well-regarded righthander out of Arkansas. Can the organization find somewhere in the range of $300,000 to $600,000 in the draft budget? Would that get a deal done with Tygart? Will be interesting to watch.
For some additional detail, my initial projections on who will sign are in the
2024 Draft Signing Period Discussion Thread in the SoxProspects Forum. The projections will be updated regularly, and that thread will include detailed discussion and snippets of info from across the web.
Mike Andrews is Editor-in-Chief of SoxProspects.com
