The Emmy race for Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actress had been tightening for a while with Kali Reis (“True Detective: Night Country”) and Jennifer Jason Leigh (“Fargo”) duking it out on top while Jessica Gunning (“Baby Reindeer”) was rising up against them. But just as “Reindeer” took the lead for Best Limited Series, so too is Gunning now the official front-runner in her race.
Gunning plays Martha, a lonely woman who ends up obsessively stalking a struggling comedian (Richard Gadd) who shows her kindness. As of this writing she gets 11/2 odds, the same as Reis, but with far more Emmy pundits predicting Gunning to win. The “Baby Reindeer” standout is backed by 11 out of 17 Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from major media outlets, nine out of 11 Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, 16 of our Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Emmy noms, and 17 of our All-Star Top 24 who scored highest predicting the last two years’ Emmy noms.
Meanwhile, Reis is predicted to win by four Experts, four Top Users and three All-Stars. Leigh has support from one Expert, two Editors, three Top Users and three All-Stars. And Diane Lane (“Feud: Capote vs. the Swans”) is a dark horse with one Expert in her corner. So it’s not a slam dunk for Gunning by any means, but these days the Emmys tend to go all in on the programs they like.
Last year “Beef” was the limited series of the moment, and it won lead acting prizes for Steven Yeun and Ali Wong and trophies for writing and directing in addition to the top honor of Best Limited Series. So if “Baby Reindeer” is the limited series front-runner this year, it would be odd for it not to snag a bunch of other awards as well, and Gunning’s performance is one of the drama’s central defining elements. She may be hard to deny.
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