My Spidey sense told me all along that Donald Trump wanted to pick JD Vance as his running mate.
He saw the freshman senator as a populist conservative in his own mold, an eloquent voice who could help cement Trumpism as the future of the Republican Party. Plus, he had a powerful advocate in Donald Trump, Jr.
But then, after the horrible assassination attempt on Trump last weekend, I had a moment of doubt.
The former president had started saying that he needed someone who could help him get elected. Given the heightened awareness of someone who’s been shot that his choice might have to immediately take over as president, I thought Trump might reconsider and tap the far better known and more experienced Marco Rubio. Nope.
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Vance has several things going for him. He served in Iraq, giving him a military credential that his rivals lacked. And while he is from Ohio, he speaks Midwestern.
If that helps Trump win neighboring Pennsylvania, the election is over. President Biden’s only path to re-election – which his own party’s leaders privately believe is exceedingly narrow – is to win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Vance, after writing "Hillbilly Elegy," said some terrible things about Trump in 2016, including likening him to Hitler. So did Rubio, and the former president has long since mended fences with both men.
The downside for Vance is that most ordinary voters have never heard of him, and his relative inexperience, having just been elected to public office in 2022, is open to question.
Vance has owned his past torching of Trump and said he was happy to be wrong once he met the former president. He also modified his positions, especially on abortion, to fall in the line with the MAGA agenda.
The Biden campaign immediately hit Vance by saying he "will do what Mike Pence wouldn’t on January 6: bend over backwards to enable Trump and his extreme MAGA agenda, even if it means breaking the law and no matter the harm to the American people."
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In his 2022 campaign, Vance said he would vote to set the national abortion ban at 15 weeks, but he also believes in certain exceptions. Trump is against a national ban, sticking to the Supreme Court language leaving it up to the states.
Trump has been sending signals while discussing the merits of his running mate. He said North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, a wealthy tech investor whose company he enjoys, was problematic because he signed very strict abortion restrictions in his state. Also, Burgum is largely unknown and North Dakota has three electoral votes.
When discussing Rubio, who spoke at a recent rally with Trump, the former president said the constitutional bar against two running mates from the same state could easily be fixed – but was still a complication that might be better avoided.
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The sequence of yesterday’s announcement was odd. Both Rubio and Burgum, presumably with Trump’s permission, said they had gotten calls that they were out of the running, which left Vance by the process of elimination.
Perhaps Trump realized this because he confirmed Vance well before waiting for the 4:30 ET time and Vance was told he was the guy just 20 minutes before Trump went public.
For political junkies, Vance is now the instant frontrunner for 2028.
And I’ve learned once again to trust my Spidey sense.
