“The presidential contest ended last night,” an unnamed “veteran Democratic political consultant” told NBC News the day after former President Donald Trump was grazed in the ear by an attempted assassin’s bullet. “We’ve all resigned ourselves to a second Trump presidency,” said an anonymous “senior House Democrat” to Axios.
No doubt, the last few weeks have been demoralizing for Democrats after Joe Biden’s unsettling debate performance and the dramatic photos of a bloodied yet unbowed Trump. But political professionals should know better than to predict defeat four months before Election Day, especially when polls remain close.
The ups and downs of the 2024 race should have already reminded us that an event today can be superseded by an event tomorrow. Not two months ago, Trump was convicted of 34 felonies, and Biden was inching up in the polls. Just before the debate, Biden took a brief lead in the FiveThirtyEight national average and nearly did the same in RealClearPolitics. Then, the post-debate panic over Biden’s mental acuity knocked him back two or three points in those trackers.
It is trite but true to note that a lot can happen over the next three months. We can’t be clairvoyant, but optimism is warranted. Israel and Hamas may soon agree to a ceasefire. Biden’s border crackdown may continue to drive down the number of illegal crossings and relieve pressure on municipalities. Perhaps most importantly, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates and buoy public perception of the growing economy.
Many Democrats are understandably nervous about how Biden will perform in the campaign’s final weeks, but let’s not forget that Trump may do plenty to rankle swing voters, as he has throughout his political career. It’s not true that Trump always “gets away with it.” If he did, Republicans would have had better electoral performances in 2018, 2020, and 2022.
The brazen attempt by Republicans to deify Trump and claim God intervened to save him from the assassination attempt could well be viewed by swing voters as crass opportunism, especially if the Trump campaign tries to milk the tragedy for months.
Recall how Minnesota Democrats were pilloried in October 2002 when Senator Paul Wellstone died in a plane while running for re-election. The funeral service seemed to double as a political rally, as his campaign treasurer explicitly urged attendees to “win this election for Paul Wellstone.” Then, Governor Jesse Ventura, an independent, walked out and said, “I feel violated and duped,” and Republicans piled on. Wellstone’s replacement, former Vice President Walter Mondale, lost by two points.
In the 2008 presidential primary, former New York City Rudy Giuliani’s attempt to exploit his handling of the September 11 terrorist attacks was efficiently blunted by then-Senator Joe Biden, who said in a Democratic debate, “There’s only three things he mentions in a sentence: a noun and a verb and 9/11. There’s nothing else.”
I’ve already made my case that Biden should not only withdraw from the 2024 presidential race but also resign and give President Kamala Harris the best chance to win in November. I stand by it, and I worry that Biden will have more episodes raising questions about his neurological health. There is still time for Biden to withdraw, and any Democrat concerned about his ability to campaign and govern effectively should continue to press the case.
At the same time, while Biden has slipped in the polls since the debate, he hasn’t cratered. If Trump was a remotely likable candidate, and the electorate was eager to lurch rightward, not only would Trump be running away with the election, but so would Republican Senate candidates in battleground states. The case may be that no news development can dramatically change the race’s trajectory because the partisan bases for the two candidates are broad and firm, and the “double haters” in the middle will continue to double their hate.
If the contours of the race remained fixed, its outcome may hinge upon the quality of their two parties’ get-out-the-vote operations. And on this front, Democrats should retain their optimism. As I recently wrote, the Trump campaign has made a reckless bet on the far-right Turning Point network to shoulder much of its GOTV effort despite its nonexistent track record of successful electioneering and its reputation for financial mismanagement.
Don’t take my word for it. The Atlantic’s Tim Alberta published an in-depth investigation of Trump’s campaign infrastructure and found other Republicans quietly fretting about the outsourcing plan:
[Trump’s political director James] Blair explained that allied organizations such as Turning Point Action, America First Works, and the Faith and Freedom Coalition would handle much of the right’s canvassing effort moving forward … (This isn’t the relief Republicans officials have been hoping for: Turning Point, for example, became a punch line among GOP strategists and donors after it promised to deliver Arizona— where its founder, Charlie Kirk, resides—in the 2022 midterms, only for Democrats to win every major statewide race. Kirk’s group is assuring dubious party officials and major donors that its operation has scaled up, but several told me they aren’t buying it.)
The fundamentals of the 2024 election remain favorable to Democrats. Gross Domestic Product is growing. Unemployment is low. Wages have been beating inflation for more than a year. American soldiers aren’t fighting and dying in an unpopular ground war. For over a century, incumbent parties in power have won American elections under these conditions.
Yes, we are facing an unusual set of X-factors that could render the lessons of history inoperative. But defeatism guarantees defeat. The Democrats may need to fight more of an uphill battle than necessary, but uphill battles can still be won.
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