Donald Trump was shot in the ear during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday, July 13, in what authorities said they were treating as an assassination attempt.
The Trump campaign later said he was “doing well” and appeared to have suffered no major injury besides a wound on his upper right ear.
Here are investor and analyst reactions to the shooting.
“Like everyone, I am appalled by the assassination attempt on former President Trump.
It could harbinger a return to political violence, the likes of which the US experienced in the 1960s.
Such an outcome would be grievous, but given the strength of US institutions, I don’t believe it would have an impact on ratings.”
“It was horrible to watch the video clips. From a purely markets perspective, the question is – what it does to the odds of one candidate winning over the other? Will it throw Trump off his game, as these types of rallies are a key part of his campaign strategy? It could strengthen the resolve of his supporters to go to the voting booth. Voter turnout is the key to winning.”
“The shooting further complicates the election outlook for Democrats, already divided over Biden’s future as a candidate.”
“U.S. political violence is sadly a feature and not a bug … the question now is how a nation, in which a significant proportion of citizens believe civil war is increasingly likely, will respond.”
“We don’t expect there to be an initial reaction in financial markets. If anything, the near-term implication will be the acceleration of the consensus view in markets of a Trump victory.”
“This is a very grave turn of events in a country that is very deeply polarised, in a country where a great many Americans do not believe that their democracy is healthy, or particularly functional.”
“This is the worst sort of event that can happen in that environment and I deeply worry that it presages much more political violence and social instability to come. This is the kind of thing we have seen historically in lots of countries facing instability and frequently does not end well.”
“Democracy is not in crisis right now. This is a year of many, many elections and we’ve seen them in India, the world’s most populous country, with 1.5 billion people. We’ve seen it across the European Union, the largest common market. We’ve seen it France, in the United Kingdom, in Mexico – rich countries, poor countries, democracies, all.
They have had free, fair elections with peaceful transitions. That is not what we are seeing right now in the United States. The US is the only major democracy in the world today that is experiencing a serious crisis.”
“The probability of Trump winning has increased to 70% in the betting markets after the assassination attempt. I am not sure how markets will respond.
“The bitcoin rally could be (on) concerns of more civil unrest. We will likely see some risk off moves on the market open, but that should fade quickly.”
“The shooting is likely to bolster Trump’s support, and only further augments the positive momentum he has been enjoying following the Presidential debates two weeks ago.
“The market reaction function to a Trump presidency has been characterized by a stronger US dollar and a steepening of the US Treasuries curve, so we might observe some of that this coming week if his election odds are assessed to have further improved following this incident.”
“The election is likely to be a landslide (for Trump). This probably reduces uncertainty.
“Trump has always been more ‘pro-market’ – the key issue looking forward is whether fiscal policy remains irresponsibly loose and the implication that might have for (renewed) inflation and the future path of interest rates.”
Ferres cited polls showing a surge in support for Ronald Reagan after a 1981 assassination attempt.
According to statistics recorded by the American Presidency Project at the University of California Santa Barbara, Reagan’s approval rating, already rising sharply in the early months of his presidency, went up by a further 7 percentage points in the first poll conducted after the attempt.
The increase was temporary and subsided over the course of the next three months.
“I do think this will have a shock reaction on a market that has been on tenterhooks on the US election.
“I see the odds of the Trump trade getting reinforced over the next few months till November, unless the Democrats can come up with a really credible alternative.
“It just significantly improves the odds in his favour and will lead to a steepening of the US curve over the next few months. (I) would bet on high growth, high inflation trades – financials and energy to do well, and negative for Asian currencies.” – Rappler.com
