Feelings about the economy have been sort of middling, with consumers optimistic about jobs but pessimistic about prices.
But there’s another aspect of consumer surveys that doesn’t often get reported — sentiment can skew heavily partisan. In the University of Michigan Survey, for instance, there’s frequently been a 30- to 40-point gap between how Democrats and Republicans feel about the economy. Other pollsters see this too.
The partisan divide in sentiment has been growing since the early 2010s, according to Chris Jackson at polling firm Ipsos.
When their political opponents hold the White House, “Republicans say the economy is much worse than Democrats do — even at similar income or education levels,” he said.
The same goes for Democrats; they got much more bummed out after losing the 2016 election. Sentiment flipped again in 2020.
And this year? “If Democrats were to lose the White House, I would expect to see Republicans become much more optimistic about the economy,” said John Leer at Morning Consult.
Now, Leer insists consumer sentiment measures are still valid — because Republicans and Democrats respond to big economic events similarly, becoming more pessimistic after a stock market shock or spike in inflation, for instance.
And independents? They tend to split right down the middle, pretty close to the average sentiment level for Americans overall.
