Often it seems as if voter surveys on local tax measures bring back the results the sponsor wants to hear.
That’s not the case for the Ross Valley school board, which got a report from a well-known pollster that putting a local tax increase on November’s ballot would not be promising.
Bryan Godbe, whose firm has been used by many Marin school boards to test local voters’ sentiments, said a survey of 402 Ross Valley voters indicated that support for increasing the district’s parcel tax to $335 per year failed to get the two-thirds backing it would need for passage.
With the Tamalpais Union High School District planning to return to voters in November with a reduced version of its failed facilities bond measure, Ross Valley voters would be faced with a pair of local school tax increases.
The dismal level of support March’s high school board got from Ross Valley voters means the Tam measure, even pared in scope and cost, faces a steep challenge.
Understandably, voters may be growing weary of facing local and regional tax increases on almost every ballot.
That is a legacy of Proposition 13, California’s 1978 historic taxpayer revolt, that required voter approval of local and regional tax increases.
Before 1978, municipalities and public agencies could raise most taxes without going to voters for approval.
The political rollercoaster of state funding for public schools has forced districts to seek voters OK of taxes to sustain education programs.
Districts have grown increasingly dependent on this funding, which means they return to voters to renew and, in most cases, increase their local tax.
In a vast majority of cases, Marin voters have passed these taxes.
Ross Valley district taxpayers already have a $679-per-year voter-approved district parcel tax on their property tax bill. The school board is considering seeking voter approval of a second parcel tax – $335, bringing the combined total to over $1,000 per year.
That significant increase would share the ballot with the proposed tax increase for Tam’s bond measure.
In Marin, Tam’s proposed $517 million bond was approved by 53.7% of the voters, falling short of the 55% majority vote school bond measures needed to pass.
The Tam board is returning to voters, but has cut the bond by nearly half.
Godbe warned the Ross Valley board that currently voters appear to be less inclined to support tax increases.
“In the last year and a half, with every one of my clients, I see that proposals that were seen as OK in 2023 are not OK in 2024,” he told trustees.
He surmises that the trend may be the result of national political turmoil.
It might also be a ramification of voters, especially senior citizens, growing weary of the increasing cost of living. They see it in grocery bills, their power, water and Internet costs and when they fill up their cars at the gas station.
Their tax bills are also rising, as many local taxes are loaded with fixed annual “cost of living” increases, regardless of whether interest rates rise or fall. Those annual increases compound, raising local property tax bills.
In Ross Valley’s case, it has been counting on a tax increase to help cover the increased cost of an increase in teachers’ pay trustees approved earlier this year.
In addition, many school districts are also facing rising costs for promised pensions.
Godbe’s advice for Ross Valley is sobering. He’s a seasoned veteran when it comes to local public schools and local tax measures.
Delaying the vote could prove vital in giving the district more than a few months to make their case to voters and distance themselves from Tam’s tax measure.
