Time to check your voter registration, New York: According to Politico, the deep blue Big Apple is teetering on the brink of becoming a battleground state as support for Joe Biden dissolves like the remnants of a bad dollar slice tossed into the Hudson.
According to Politico, Democratic elected officials, union leaders, and political consultants are worried that Biden’s team is ignoring New York and are trying to get it to boost his campaign in the state. They’re also deeply concerned about the Democrats in six swing districts that could determine whether the party maintains control of the House come November.
One high-level New York Democrat who spoke with Politico anonymously assessed that Democratic politicians facing tough races should avoid association with Biden, instead focusing on building their brand independent from him.
“Biden isn’t going to be handing out coattails, no matter what,” the Democrat said. “He’s only got anchors.”
According to two private polls reviewed by Politico, one taken in September 2023 and the other in March 2024, Donald Trump leads Biden by one point in New York House swing districts—putting candidates in those six districts in the crosshairs. Public polls show Biden’s lead against Trump across the state has shrunk to just eight points, according to a Siena College poll conducted in June. In the lead-up to the 2020 general election, Biden led Trump by nearly 30 points across New York, an astonishing plummet.
“We’re still acting like this is a one-party state, which for pretty much 20, 25 years it has been,” Democratic Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine told Politico. “I truly believe we’re a battleground state now.”
Meanwhile, Biden’s team expects him to easily win the state in November and have shown little interest in committing resources to it. During the 2024 election, Biden has largely only visited the Empire State for closed-door ritzy fundraisers, which are consistently protested by New Yorkers denouncing Biden’s support for Israel’s devastation of Gaza. He made one public appearance—a dedication ceremony for the Stonewall Inn Visitor Center in late June—but that too was overshadowed by protests.
While Biden’s polls have sent alarm bells ringing ahead of the 2024 general election, New York has been in a backslide for at least the past two years: During the 2022 midterm elections, New York Governor Kathy Hochul barely eked out a win against ultraconservative election-denialist Lee Zeldin, whose campaign largely focused on fearmongering about crime in New York City. Four blue congressional seats flipped red that year, including the humiliating defeat of Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Sean Patrick Maloney to Republican Assemblymember Mike Lawler. A number of other races across New York State also faced surprisingly close contests. The midterm turnout in New York showed voters across the state swung to the right, falling for Republicans heavily stoking fear about crime.
Moderate Democratic Representative Pat Ryan—whose seat is at risk in New York’s 18th congressional district, north of New York City, and who narrowly won in 2022—called for Biden to bow out on Wednesday. “I’d be doing a grave disservice if I said he was the best candidate to serve this fall. For the good of our country, for my two young kids, I’m asking Joe Biden to step aside in the upcoming election and deliver on the promise to be a bridge to a new generation of leaders,” he told The New York Times. “I really hope, with all my heart, that he will listen.”
Still, many New York electeds continue backing Biden, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Both have expressed support for Biden as the Democratic nominee as he continues facing headwinds of doubt following his disastrous debate performance. “As I’ve said before, I’m with Joe,” Schumer said during his weekly press conference on Tuesday.
“The matter is closed,” Ocasio-Cortez told the press on Monday. “Joe Biden is our nominee. He is not leaving this race. He is in this race, and I support him.”
Democratic Party spokesperson Jen Goodman brushed aside concerns with confidence of New Yorkers’ long-standing hatred for Donald Trump, telling Politico, “Time and again New Yorkers have rejected Donald Trump.
“He’s the most unpopular person in New York politics, and there is no doubt that voters will once again turn out for President Biden in November,” Goodman added.
