Despite hundreds of articles in The New York Times and countless others throughout the media, and eight House Democratic lawmakers declaring Joe Biden should end his re-election campaign, the President’s performance at the June 27 debate has had “almost no impact” on voters’ preferences, a new Northeastern University study finds.
“Led by David Lazer, university distinguished professor of political science and computer science at Northeastern, the report indicates that the debate had little if any impact on people’s voting preference. Lazer hopes the report helps illustrate the dangers of making a mountain out of a molehill when it comes to the media interpreting data,” reports Northeastern Global News, which is published by the University.“
Even the New York Times, which is usually better about this, talked about a very tiny shift that was totally insignificant statistically like it was evidence that it was a shift toward Trump after the debate,” Lazer says. “My hope is that reporters look at this and say, ‘Maybe we need to be careful in overinterpreting noise as actual signal.’”
Professor Lazar said, “the net result is not a movement away from Biden.”
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The report shows 94% of those surveyed who had said before the debate they were Biden supporters said they would continue to support the President. But just 86% of those who indicated support for Trump before the debate said they would continue to do so.
“If anything, it seems that Biden is holding on to his people somewhat better than Trump,” Lazar added.
Examining some “very minor shifts between the candidates,” Northeastern Global News reports, “1% of people who said they would vote for Biden before the debate, switched to preferring Trump, while 3% switched from Trump to Biden.”
“Similarly, respondents who said they were unsure who they would vote for before the debate were slightly more likely to switch to preferring Biden after the debate.”
A small percentage who indicated support for Biden or Trump pre-debate shifted to a third party candidate, but that was nearly offset by third-party candidate supporters switching to Biden or Trump post-debate.
“Trump was convicted of a set of felonies,” Lazer told Northeastern Global News. “The impact it had on surveys was zero. Biden had a debate where most people said it proved he was too old. Survey respondents said, ‘Yeah, I saw that. He’s too old. I’m still voting for him.’ The numbers just aren’t moving.”
The report examined responses from 1262 “repeat responders” from all 50 states and was conducted from June 16 through July 5. The study is titled: “No Change−Evaluating the Short-Term Impact of the Presidential Debate on Voter Preferences.”
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