Rory McIlroy bids to bounce back from his US Open collapse as he defends his Scottish Open title this week – and the bookies clearly think he can put the pain of Pinehurst behind him.
McIlroy heads the market at a best-priced 8-1, which is one point better then the man who prevailed in the 2022 edition at the Renaissance Club near Edinburgh, Xander Schauffele.
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As McIlroy and Schauffele occupy the second and third spots in the world rankings – and No 1 Scottie Scheffler is surprisingly swerving the event, despite finishing in a tie for third last year – it is easy to see why Rory and Xander dominate the market.
But McIlroy admitted missing a couple of tiddlers at the US Open to hand victory to Bryson DeChambeau left a few scars, which is why he has not been seen in action since then.
To be fair, he has looked relaxed and confident at the Renaissance Club – but he would not be human if he was not already thinking about Major championship redemption at Troon next week.
Schauffele has already got his Major in the bag after his breakthrough victory at the USPGA and he is due a dip after eleven top tens in his last 15 starts. So there are compelling reasons to look outside the big two this week.
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The man sitting just behind McIlroy and Schauffele in the world rankings, Ludvig Aberg, is attractively priced at around 16-1.
It is hard to believe Aberg has not won this year – although he has posted a couple of seconds, including his eye-popping performance to chase home Scheffler when making his Masters debut a few months ago.
The victory ‘drought’ stretching back a whole eight months to his first PGA Tour title at the RSM Classic, cannot continue much longer.
His price is bigger than you would expect because he missed the cut here last year – although that was when he was still rookie pro, caught up in a whirlwind that would lead to a triumphant Ryder Cup debut.
It would be a surprise if he does not do a lot better this time – and almost as much of a surprise if he does not win at least twice before the year is out.
Tom Kim looked poised to improve on his debut third in this event two years ago, when he emerged as McIlroy’s closest challenger last year after 54 holes.
A disappointing three over par 73 dropped him into a tie for sixth, but he can clearly play this course. He can be backed at 25-1, and with two top six finishes here already, that makes him an each way must.
Davis Thompson did us a favour at the same odds in the John Deere last week, shooting a tournament record 28 under par to romp home by four shots.
He is on a hot streak, and I don’t like abandoning him especially at a best-priced 66-1. But first-time PGA Tour winners often suffer a blip, so it is hard to see him going back-to-back.
This is an event where course form matters, and the other player who demands attention is Ben An. His first round 61 last year equalled the course record, and he eventually joined Scheffler in a share of third.
An is around 66-1 to go a couple of places higher – and the same odds to repeat his fear in leading after round one. Small stakes on both markets could pay dividends.
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Two players who made the top twenty last year, Tom Hoge and Ryan Fox, let themselves down with dodgy closing rounds. Both are priced up at 80-1, and both are capable of finishing a lot higher than 12 months ago.
And there are plenty of players at three figure odds who could make an impact, in a wide open event that is a lot different to the normal fare served up on the PGA Tour.
England’s Justin Rose and Laurie Canter are both high on confidence – Rose after surviving a tough Open qualifying bout and Canter after his breakthrough DP World Tour win. At 150-1 and 200-1 respectively, they are worth a second look.
And fast-improving Japanese star Ryo Hisatsune is the type who could make a mockery of his 175-1 quote.
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