Series Preview: Mets Face Nationals for Another Crucial Series

The New York Mets (44-45) return home from their eight-game road trip having split both series against the Pirates and Nationals. They will once again face the Washington Nationals (42-49), a quick turnaround from their latest matchup coming less than a week ago.

While a .500 record on the road trip may not be worthy of panic, it is a reflection of the holes that are present within this current Mets team. Specifically, the lackluster performance from the bullpen and the offensive woes of underperforming hitters have played major roles in the losses that occurred.

Since both teams are operating on the same schedule since their last matchup, there will be two repeat pitching matchups from the previous series.

Let’s take a look at the pitching matchups for this week!

Tuesday, July 9, 2024: RHP Jake Irvin (7-6, 2.80 ERA) vs. LHP Jose Quintana (3-5, 4.22 ERA)

Jake Irvin was highly successful against the Mets last week, inducing 15 swings and misses in eight shutout frames of the Fourth of July. Irvin used his curveball 40 times out of his 99 pitches, and he generated 13 called strikes and seven whiffs on it. The Mets will have to take a different approach against Irvin on Tuesday, as he held them to just one hit that game.

Jose Quintana had a similarly effective performance in that matchup against Irvin last week, tossing seven stellar innings with just one run allowed. He used his slurve 13 percent of the time, compared to his 6.4 percent rate on the season, and it turned out to be a good decision. Out of the 12 slurves he threw, Quintana generated three called strikes and two whiffs. He looks to pick up where he left off on Tuesday against the same team.

Wednesday, July 10, 2024: LHP Patrick Corbin (1-8, 5.49 ERA) vs. RHP Luis Severino (5-3, 3.83 ERA)

Although Patrick Corbin’s statistics do not reflect dominance by any means, he has been much better as of late. Since his June 5 start against the Mets, his season ERA has decreased from 6.15 to 5.49. In those five starts, Corbin has tossed 28 1/3 innings with a 3.81 ERA, 3.45 FIP, 24 strikeouts, 26 hits, and eight walks. That being said, he should not be seen as an easy matchup given the quality of his recent play.

While Luis Severino has eclipsed six innings in each of his last six outings, his levels of success have varied. In his last two starts, he has pitched a combined 13 innings with 11 earned runs allowed and just six strikeouts. Severino’s lack of swings and misses has hurt him this season, as he sits in just the 11th percentile of whiff rate and 20th percentile of strikeout rate among qualified pitchers this season. Severino was the opposing pitcher in the aforementioned June 5th matchup against Corbin, and he was brilliant in eight innings with just one run allowed.

Thursday, July 11, 2024: LHP MacKenzie Gore (6-7, 3.83 ERA) vs. LHP David Peterson (3-0, 3.58 ERA)

David Peterson turned in an effective performance against the Nationals last week, pitching into the seventh inning. He ultimately finished with 6 1/3 innings with two earned runs allowed, while demonstrating exceptional command of his sinker. Out of the 36 sinkers he threw, one-third of them registered as called strikes. Peterson is clearly at his best when he is limiting the walks, so it is imperative that he continues to command the strike zone well on Thursday.

MacKenzie Gore also pitched well in last week’s matchup. He accrued 21 swings and misses in 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball. Despite its high volume of usage, his four-seam fastball was highly efficient, generating 13 whiffs and nine called strikes out of 60 uses. The Mets should approach Thursday’s game in a similar fashion by trying to increase Gore’s pitch count early to get to the Nationals bullpen.

Players to Watch

Brandon Nimmo (NYM)

While he was not selected as an All-Star, Brandon Nimmo has been a mainstay in the Mets lineup this year. In his last three games, he is 6-for-12 with a home run, double, walk, and three RBIs. Nimmo is also in the 92nd percentile with an elite 50 percent hard-hit rate with an equally impressive 92nd percentile average exit velocity of 92.5 miles per hour.

Luis García Jr. (WSH) 

Luis García Jr. has been on fire since July 3, going 10-for-19 with three home runs and eight RBIs. He has consistently been a tough out this season, with his 83rd percentile 16.1 percent strikeout rate. In addition, his ability to hit to all fields is showcased through his 90th percentile .291 xBA. He looks to build upon his recent momentum against the Mets this week.

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