In light of favorable polling results from last week, the National Rally was confident of standing a chance — and perhaps even defeating — French President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party in France’s July 7 parliamentary elections. However, this week’s results are a shocking reality check for Marine Le Pen, Jordan Bardella, and their supporters; and, indeed, for the Right more broadly.
Surprisingly, it was the leftist New Popular Front alliance that garnered the most votes, with a relative majority of 172-192 of the 577 seats. Macron’s Renaissance came in second with 150-170 seats, leaving National Rally with 132-152 seats. (READ MORE: Elections Leave France in Chaos)
Of course, none of the three parties was able to win an absolute majority, rendering the future of the country’s parliamentary leadership uncertain. Regardless of leadership, the conditions of this newly hung parliament will force members to work on building consensus across parties in order to pass legislation.
The Left’s unexpected victory in the election was due to the strategic formation of a left-wing coalition under the New Popular Front party. Uniting more than six different parties from across the political left (up to and including the Socialist Party, the French Communist Party, the green Ecologist party, and the Place Publique party), the new coalition encompassed enough factions to surpass the votes of both Macron and Le Pen. Although their primary goal was to defeat the National Rally, they are also outspokenly against President Macron’s pro-business governance, especially when it comes to his most recent pension policy.
In spite of being third-place, the National Rally was still able to garner the most votes in the history of its electoral participation. In an X post just a few hours ago today, Marine Le Pen said: “[T]he progress in two years is incredible and makes our short-term victory inevitable. It will invite us to also take stock of what can undoubtedly be improved in the future.” But the loss was still surprising, given the party’s trajectory and the polling predictions.
What, then, is the lesson for Americans? First, remain watchful — yes, Biden is in his weakest, but that does not guarantee a Trump victory. There are still four months until the election, and given the unstable nature of our political climate, it is not hyperbolic to say that anything can happen. Conservatives already experienced disappointment in the 2022 midterm elections. The polls spoke of a so-called “red wave” that never came, leaving Republicans with a fragile majority in the House.
But there is also another, perhaps deeper political lesson to be drawn from the French elections. Namely, that liberalism still reigns supreme. It would have been one thing for the “hard-Left” to have won over National Rally, and for Macron to have been third. That would at least be a sign of a broadly postliberal realignment. But the fact that the New Popular Front’s success worked against Le Pen, more than it did against Macron, sends the opposite message. Liberalism, in all its expressions, from Renaissance’s elite pro-business alliance to the more progressive and “hard-Left” factions, France’s political elites (and, to some extent, the electorate as well) will do anything to prevent the Right from gaining power.
Back to America: As Trump is yet to pick his running mate, and is in the process of further defining what his administration’s policies would look like in 2025, Republicans should be wary of forces that seek to redefine the former president’s goals under the old Romney-type formula of the party.
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