'Extremely active season' predicted in updated Atlantic hurricane forecast
AUSTIN (KXAN) — Colorado State University has released its updated forecast for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and researchers are projecting an "extremely active season."
The forecast calls for 25 named storms and 12 hurricanes, with six of those hitting Category 3 or greater.
This is up from their original forecast back on April 6, which originally called for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. The new forecast already includes Alberto, Beryl, and Chris, all named storms so far this season.
Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures have helped with rapid intensification of storms, with Beryl being the latest example. That storm becoming the first major hurricane of the season, ultimately reaching Category 5 status.
While the storm did eventually downgrade to tropical storm status, it did re-intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before making landfall around Matagorda on July 8.
The new CSU forecast predicts a 54% chance of a hurricane within 50 miles of the Texas coast, and a 25% chance of a major hurricane near Texas. Both of those figures are above average.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released their forecast back in May calling for 17-25 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes and 4-7 of those reaching major hurricane status.
A La Niña is expected to form and reduce vertical wind shear which can be lethal to development of storms.
We are still at the beginning of hurricane season, with the peak arriving on September 10. Hurricane season ends on November 30.