Throughout nearly eight decades of Primetime Emmys history, only three shows have scored their first Best Comedy Series wins three seasons into their respective runs. Since “Caesar’s Hour” (1957) and “Get Smart” (1968) achieved this feat fairly early on, “Sex and the City” (2001) has stood as the sole 21st century example for quite some time. That could soon change, however, given that this category’s 2024 nominations ballot includes 15 third-year candidates.
Based on the predictions of more than 3,000 Gold Derby users, four of this year’s eight Best Comedy Series nominees will be judged on the merits of their third seasons. These generally agreed upon contenders are “Hacks,” “Abbott Elementary,” “Only Murders in the Building,” and “Reservation Dogs,” the first three of which have already vied for this honor twice each. “Hacks” stands alone in having only lost to “Ted Lasso” (2021-2022), while the other two were both beaten by that show in 2022 and current frontrunner “The Bear” in 2023.
In order of odds-based nomination likelihood, this category’s remaining third-year hopefuls are “Girls5eva,” “Ghosts,” “The Righteous Gemstones,” “Upload,” “Physical,” “Acapulco,” “The Outlaws,” “Resident Alien,” “iCarly,” “Son of a Critch,” and “The Upshaws.” Aside from “The Bear” (season two), the shows rounding out our top eight are “Curb Your Enthusiasm” (season 12), “What We Do in the Shadows” (season five), and “Palm Royale” (season one).
We further predict that “Hacks,” “Abbott Elementary,” and “Only Murders in the Building” will collectively amass 14 acting nominations this year. At this point, those probable bids are generally expected to result in a pair of wins for “Hacks” regulars Jean Smart and Hannah Einbinder, the former of whom is looking to maintain her perfect Best Comedy Actress record after taking a year off.
Although it may appear that “The Bear” has this and most other major comedy races sewn up, one mustn’t ignore the solid Emmy track records of some of the third-season contenders, especially acting and writing honorees “Hacks” and “Abbott Elementary.” Back in 2001, “Sex and the City” even proved the possibility of clinching an initial third-year victory despite facing opposition from former winners (“Frasier” and “Will & Grace”) and losing on all of its other concurrent bids.
Any of the 15 aforementioned candidates would be the 12th comedy series to ever receive this top honor for its third season. Besides the three with no prior wins, the current list includes “I Love Lucy” (1954), “The Phil Silvers Show” (1958), “The Dick Van Dyke Show” (1964), “All in the Family” (1973), “Taxi” (1981), “Frasier” (1996), “30 Rock” (2009), and “Modern Family” (2012). As of now, first and second season wins collectively account for 50.7% of all triumphs in this category.
PREDICT the 2024 Emmy nominations through July 17
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