Like it or not, it’s either Joe Biden or Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket this year for the Democrats — and it appears a lot of Democrats don’t like it at all, even as Republicans are thrilled.
But a look at the polls and the possible strategies for Harris should make Democrats more sanguine and Republicans more concerned. If Harris and her team approach the race in a clear-minded way, not falling to the neuroses and groupthink of the “resistance,” the vice president could flip the script and win.
Biden’s praetorian guard and Lady Macbeth cannot fix his fundamental problem — the incumbent president looks more and more like a loser. Nothing they have done has helped. Now, after bad interviews, gaffes and a debate face that's gone from ashen to looking like he fell asleep under a heat lamp, Biden appears to be cooked.
He is losing ground nationally and in key states. Team Biden might take some solace in the recent Morning Consult state polls, but with a lot of sampling variance, some results are downright strange (Donald Trump is up just 1 point in Georgia but by 7 points in Pennsylvania? Really?). Meanwhile, Biden's approvals have collapsed to their lowest levels yet.
Trump is the beneficiary, now leading in states representing 312 electoral votes and making multiple Biden states competitive. The betting markets have Trump as a huge favorite. But the former president’s own approval is not improving by much. And reviews of his debate performance were not good.
In the few ballot tests against Trump, Harris has not polled better than Biden. Unsurprisingly, the vice president generally tracks with the president — also not polling well. Given her lower profile, she expectedly has lower numbers on approval. The recent YouGov poll has her at 39 percent approve against 55 percent disapprove, the same as Biden on approve and 3 points better on disapprove. Looking at the RealClearPolitics average, Harris has experienced a fall in tandem with Biden, but scores a bit better on approve-disapprove.
The FiveThirtyEight collection of polls shows Harris doing a shade worse than Biden. While her lower percentage is expected, there can be a concern that Trump improves slightly when she is given as the alternative, by 2 points in the YouGov and Ipsos polls and 3 points in the Daily Mail poll. Harris does perform better in the CNN poll. Worth noting, Trump beats every Democrat tested in both the Ipsos and the CNN polling; independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont is the only person on the left who does not have a negative approval rating (YouGov).
But it isn’t Harris’s numbers that matter as much as her strategic opportunities. Harris has two major assets: first, the contempt that Team Biden has for her, and second, the fact that she would be running against Trump.
With reports that Biden has been protected by his inner circle, freezing Harris out gives her plausible deniability on Biden's every bungle. On immigration, despite being assigned the issue, Harris could claim she advocated for a tougher line, but that the president was badly advised. She cannot throw this line out indiscriminately about nearly every issue, of course — she has to be shrewd about it.
Unfortunately, Harris has not demonstrated much political savvy. She strikes me as the kind of politician who might discover a gambit that works and quickly wears it out.
Sure, Republicans will dig up embarrassing videos and cast the dreaded “flip-flop” curse upon Harris. But she had to be a loyal veep, right? Besides, the public hardly trusts Trump on the truth. Being just kind of believable is enough these days.
The bottom line is, the failure or unwillingness to raise Harris’s profile by Biden’s insular cabal could turn out to be accidentally brilliant — for Harris. But it only works if she is willing to throw them all under the bus, unapologetically. Normally, that might be a big risk. But the hatred for Trump on the left makes it very dangerous for any Biden loyalist to fight back. Any anonymous leak will result in an investigation that could put Watergate to shame.
Against a more deft, disciplined GOP nominee, Harris — who has shown little political dexterity, to say the least — would be a sacrificial lamb, with only a slightly better chance than Biden. But Trump is not that that deft or disciplined nominee.
Trump may have won the debate, but that was by default. The CBS News-YouGov flash poll asked voters four substance questions (“Presented Ideas Clearly, Appeared Presidential, Inspired Confidence and Explained Plans and Policies”); on every question, Trump scored under 50 percent. And that is with Biden having the worst debate performance of any modern candidate.
In the post-debate polls, Trump’s approval numbers did not improve. Biden, however, crashed from minus-15 points to minus-19 points. Voters don’t trust either candidate, but they trust Trump less: 32 percent say they him honest and 56 percent dishonest, with independents split 28 percent to 61 percent.
And then there is the big question: Why isn’t Trump polling better? Biden is less popular, is underwater on inflation by 27 points (35 points with independents) and concerns about his age have been high for over a year. Yet, Trump cannot break 50 percent nationally or in any of the battleground states. Clearly, a majority just don’t want to vote for Trump and his numbers are being boosted by fumbling Joe Biden.
What could clinch a win for Harris would be offering voters a truly fresh start. Harris could adopt the Nikki Haley “end the chaos” line as a justification for ending the non-stop political trials, including a possible pardon for Trump. Such a move would be detestable for the left but could be a relief for the swing voters sick of constant political bickering.
Harris could insist that any prosecution play itself out, bringing up both Trump and the dissolute Hunter Biden. By presenting herself as rising above politics and doing what’s best for the country, Harris partly neuters GOP antipathy for her, appeals to independents and looks like a leader. The progressive base would be apoplectic, but they might bite through their lips if it means beating Trump. If Harris rises in the polls, Trump might respond in kind — but I doubt anyone would believe him.
Does Harris have the wherewithal to make bold moves and break out of the partisan box Team Biden is in? It’s unlikely. She has had more than a few awkward moments as a politician, struggling to connect with voters. Her outcast status in the Biden administration might be warranted. She could walk on to the big stage and pratfall her way right out of contention.
It would not be surprising if she did a me-too Biden campaign, crusading against the perfidy of Trump, mouthing empty talking points and trying to placate her party’s loud progressive minority. But if Harris is willing to take some risks, she just might make it to the Oval Office.
Keith Naughton is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm, and a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant.
