Last time out, the Emmy drama series races were dominated in the nominations by “Succession” (27 bids), “The Last of Us” (24) and “The White Lotus” (23). None of the three are eligible this time – nor is seven-time nominee “Better Call Saul” – and those nominations have to go someplace. That wholesale changing of the guard in the drama races opens the door to both newcomers like “Shogun,” “Fallout” and “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” and returnees including “The Morning Show,” “Slow Horses” and “The Gilded Age” when it comes to frontrunners.
This was fresh on the mind of Gold Derby senior editors Daniel Montgomery, Denton Davidson, Marcus James Dixon and news and features editor Ray Richmond as they locked horns in a slugfest debating Best Drama Series as well as the six drama acting categories. In terms of the biggest Emmy prize in the category area, Richmond can’t make up his mind between “Shogun” and “The Crown” and figures he’ll change his mind a few more times before nominations are announced on July 17. Not that he needs to pick a winner this early, anyway. “I’ve got ‘Shogun,’ ‘The Crown,’ ”The Gilded Age,’ ‘The Morning Show,’ ‘The Curse,’ ‘Slow Horses,’ ‘Mr. and Mrs. Smith’ and ‘Fallout’ as my eight,” he declares. “I know there are a few other shows I’m passing over, like ‘3 Body Problem,’ ‘Loki’ and ‘Ahsoka.’ I may add one of those down the road.” Watch the quartet’s lively discussion above.
“I have ‘Shogun’ winning and doing quite well (throughout the nominations),” Montgomery offers. “‘Shogun’ and ‘The Crown’ are my top two and honestly the only ones I feel safe about. Literally anything else could be snubbed and I wouldn’t be surprised. In a year this open, I believe ‘The Morning Show’ (finally) gets in. Same with ‘The Gilded Age’.” Davidson agrees this is “an insane category because you’ve got two to three shows that I feel comfortable about. And the rest, well, we don’t know what (voters) are watching, because it’s completely wide open. I have ‘Shogun’ number one, but we’re sort of all assuming that they love it, but we don’t really know. But we do know that they’ve loved ‘The Crown’ before, so that could win for its final season and it’s had surprises before, especially in acting races.”
Dixon also figures that the influx of so many new shows in the drama race makes it quite the wild card, and he too has “Shogun” winning. “I think FX is going to have a really good night because ‘Shogun’ could win drama, ‘The Bear’ could win comedy series and ‘Fargo’ could win limited (series). I don’t remember the last time a (single) network won all three.”
Moving on to drama actress, it too stands to be a massively competitive category. Montgomery is picking Anna Sawai of “Shogun” for the win and is looking at Imelda Staunton (“The Crown”) and Gold Derby pacesetter Jennifer Aniston (“The Morning Show”) as runners up “since they were both snubbed for their last eligible seasons and I don’t know if there’s enough love for them to go from snubbed to a win. I’ve also got Reese Witherspoon getting back in (for “The Morning Show”). And Emma Stone, hot off that Oscar win, getting in for ‘The Curse’.” Davidson is going in a similar direction with most of his choices – including Stone despite being “so weird and quirky” in her show – but is hopeful that Maya Erskine gets in for “Mr. and Mrs. Smith.” “I also have Carrie Coon (for “The Gilded Age”), who I’m not confident about, so I might put in Maya.”
Richmond is straight-out picking Erskine to make the nominations cut “because she’s so good and so strong and so entertaining and so fun in that show and has such great chemistry with Donald Glover. I’m also looking at trying to get Elle Purnell in for ‘Fallout,’ but there are only so many slots.” Meanwhile, Dixon asks, “Am I the only one who has Carrie Preston nominated (for “Elsbeth”)?” Told that he was, he insisted, “Well, I do have her because she carries that show. She’s like a ‘Murder, She Wrote-type character. She’s solving the murders and she’s very quirky. But I also have Anna (Sawai) winning. Dixon also noted that, moving on to drama actor, he was Sawai’s “Shogun” costar Hiroyuki Sanada winning. (He and Gary Oldman of “Slow Horses” are currently tied at the top of the Gold Derby odds.) I have Oldman at number two. I could see Gary Oldman winning and his show not even getting in. Am I crazy?”
No one was game to specifically address Dixon’s sanity. But the others did take a crack at offering their drama actor picks. Davidson doesn’t see Oldman emerging victorious in the category and notes, “I was singing the (“Slow Horses”) praises for Season 1 and no one listened. He’s just not going to suddenly win Best Actor, especially when you’ve got someone from ‘Shogun,’ a show that everyone is expecting to do so well. I think Dominic West from ‘The Crown’ is in second place and I have Gary in third because he’s Gary Oldman. I also have Cosmo Jarvis from ‘Shogun’ getting nominated, and Walton Goggins from ‘Fallout,’ and Donald Glover from ‘Mr. and Mrs. Smith’.”
Montgomery also has Sanada down for the win, followed by West, Glover and Oldman. “I’m getting Jeff Bridges/’The Old Man’ vibes from ‘Slow Horses’,” he believes. “His stature and reputation will get him in, but I don’t see him winning. Then I’ve got Cosmo Jarvis, and for the last slot I’m going out on a limb with Timothy Olyphant for ‘Justified: City Primeval.’ He’s been nominated multiple times before for different roles.” Richmond too is going with Sanada to win along with Oldman, West, Glover, Goggins and – for his final pick – Tom Hiddleston for “Loki.” “It’s just a hunch,” he concludes.
PREDICT the 2024 Emmy nominees through July 17
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