With the 2024 season nearly half over, I decided to see how my proposed trades from last season would have worked out. Predicting the future is hard, and this far JJ has done a remarkable job of free agent signings. Both Lugo and Wacha were good gets by JJ, and the trade for Ragans last season may end up being the best trade in Royals history. I want to analyze my trade proposals and see how I'd have done as an armchair GM.
1st trade:
Trade Maikel Garcia to the Marlins for:
E. Cabrera (SP) $8.6 mil 5 years
Nick Fortres(C) $3.8 mil 5 years
JT Cargois (RP) $3 mil 2 years
Garcia has been worth 0.7 bWAR so far. Cabrera has been worth -0.3, Nick Fortes has been worth -0.9, and JT Cargois has been worth 0.3. Obviously this trade was to get a long-term starting pitcher for the Royals with a back-up Catcher as well. They are both flops at this point, with JT the only one from the group worth anything. At least I improved the bullpen a little.
2nd trade:
Trade Brady "2-pitch" Singer to the Pirates for:
Johan Oviedo (SP) $24.1 mil 4 years
Bailey Falter (LRP) $4.7 mil 4 years
This was my oldest trade (imo), since I'm trading away a starting pitcher when the Royals desperately needed starting pitching. Brady has been worth 2.1 bWAR so far. Oviedo has been worth 2.2, and Falter has been worth 1.7. This trade would have been very good for the Royals, and would have made me llok like a good GM. Trading Brady would have been a smart move here, but would have cost the Royals some money going forward. On the other hand, both these players are signed for 4 years, so they'd last through the rebuild an into the contention years.
3rd trade:
Trade Salvy and Samad Taylor to the White Sox for:
Andrew Benintendi (LF) $66.4 mil 4 years
Yohan Ramirez (RP) $min 4 years
Tanner McDougal (SP) (minors) $min 20 years old in minors
This was probably my riskiest and least likely trade in my list, since Salvy had veto rights to any trade. I was worried about Salvy's production falling off a cliff, and thankfully that hasn't happened. Beni was and is a disaster, but I was hoping to get some decent younger players in the process. Salvy has been worth 1.8 bWAR and Samad has been worth 0.1 so far. Benintendi has been a train wreck, worth -1.8. Ramirez has been worth -0.2, and McDougal has a 1.53 WHIP in A+ ball this season. Altogether an awful trade, and worthy of getting me fired as a GM.
4th trade:
Trade MJM and Massey to the Cubs for:
Daniel Palencia (RP) $5.6 mil 6 years
Josh Rivera (3B) $min 22 years old in minors
Javier Assad (LRP) $8.1 mil 5 years
I really liked this trade at the time, hoping it would improve both the bullpen and 3rd base tree in one trade. MJM has been worth -0.2 bWAR, and Massey has been worth 1.0. Palencia has been worth -0.1, and Assad has been worth 2.2. Rivera is in AA with a .548 OPS in thus far in 2024. As you can see, Assad would have been worth the trade all by himself, and that's good because the other two players really haven't amounted to much.
5th trade:
Trade Waters, Pratto, and Tolbert to the Rays for:
Aaron Civale (SP) $11.5 mil 2 years
Josh Fleming (LRP) 4850K 1 year
Alexander Alberto(SP) $min 22 years old in minors
This was a trade hoping to get some starting pitching for failed prospects. The Rays would have been insane to go for this trade, but the numbers on the trade simulator showed a slight advantage for the Rays, believe it or not. Pratto has 0.0 bWAR, Waters has -0.1, and Tolbert went from AAA back to AA so far. No great loss to see them leave the Royals organization. Civale has been worth 0.2, Fleming has been worth -0.2, and Alberto has a 1.67 WHIP in Low A ball so far in 2024. Not a great trade, but at least I got a starter that isn't a total dumpster fire for next to nothing in failed prospects.
6th trade:
Trade Austin Cox , Gavin Cross, and Tyler Gentry to the Angels for:
Nelson Rada (OF)
Mickey Moniak (OF)
This was my attempt to improve the outfield through trades when the Royals really didn't have much to give. Austin Cox has a 1.68 WHIP in AAA Omaha this season. Cross has a .791 OPS in AA, and Gentry has a .691 OPS in AAA.
Rada has a .562 OPS in AA and Moniak has been worth -0.9 bWAR this season. This trade was definitely a bust, as the main get wa Moniak, who has stunk it up in the bigs this season.
So overall, would you keep me or can me as GM based on these trades? And how did your proposed trades work out? I'd like to see others do this and see how they would have done in JJ's shoes.
