LESS than 24 hours after polling ended and counting started across Britain, the reality of what was ubiquitously described as a sensational Blair-style Labour landslide in the media became clear.
With 400 plus seats for Labour, major losses in Tory heartlands and a clear mandate to rule, there was little doubt that Prime Minister Keir Starmer is the man voters picked to lead the country. But a closer inspection of the vote share gains, voter turnout and sentiment, and performance of Labour’s rivals in key constituencies revealed that the path ahead for Sir Keir will be an uphill climb from day one.
“That looks like love, but that is a loveless landslide,” said commentator Gary Gibbon, highlighting that Labour’s “extraordinary achievement” of a landslide victory came with one of its lowest shares of the vote.
Uncomfortable truths
Four and a half years ago, Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party garnered just over 10 million votes in the UK’s general election, representing a third of all votes cast. This performance resulted in Labour securing 202 seats in the House of Commons, its lowest number since the 1930s.
Starmer’s victory is not as much a Labour win as it is a Tory collapse
Fast-forward to July 4, and Sir Keir’s Labour Party received half a million fewer votes than in 2019, maintaining a third of the popular vote.
However, under the first-past-the-post electoral system, this performance has been rewarded with a substantial majority and 412 seats so far, the second-highest tally in the party’s history.
Turnout as a whole was 60 per cent, the second lowest in a UK election since 1885. Only 2001 was lower with 59pc.
“I don’t mean to suggest Corbyn was robbed of a victory and a stint in 10 Downing Street,” John Burn-Murdoch wrote for the Financial Times. “I am merely highlighting how Britain’s increasingly broken voting system can build wildly different narratives around similarly tepid levels of popular support.”
Benefits from anti-incumbency
Writing for The Guardian, columnist Frances Ryan highlighted that Labour’s overwhelming victory is less about embracing Labour and more about rejecting the Conservative Party’s track record of “cruelty, chaos, and corruption”. However, Ryan cautioned that the real challenge for Starmer lies ahead: many voters remain sceptical about Labour’s ability to deliver significant change swiftly. The new government must prove its mettle by addressing these doubts and implementing policies that tangibly improve lives.
Analyst Tom Belger reinforced this sentiment, stressing that the first 100 days of Starmer’s administration will be critical. The pressure to fulfil campaign promises while managing high public expectations and strict fiscal constraints will be intense. Belger noted, “Labour will certainly have a string of high-profile announcements to unveil imminently and sound like it means business — but it faces a tricky balancing act.”
Facing the music on Gaza
Labour has lost five seats with large Muslim populations — four to independents and one to the Conservatives. The results also show that Labour support in constituencies with large Muslim communities fell about 23 points to 39pc.
In Ilford North, shadow health secretary Wes Streeting was among those who saw his majority slashed from more than 9,000 to 528.
In Birmingham Perry Barr, Labour’s Khalid Mahmood lost to independent Ayoub Khan by 507 votes. Independent candidates who made the conflict in Gaza central to their campaign won in Dewsbury and Batley, as well as Blackburn, which both previously had healthy Labour majorities.
Despite Labour’s overall success, key figures, like Jonathan Ashworth, lost their seats to pro-Gaza independent candidates, reflecting a broader trend of disaffection within certain voter demographics. “Labour need to take the votes lost over Gaza as seriously as we took the loss of red wall,” tweeted John McTernan, Tony Blair’s former adviser, who pointed out the urgent need for Labour to start rebuilding relations with these disillusioned voters.
Taj Ali from Tribune magazine highlighted that pro-Gaza independents now hold as many seats in parliament as Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and the Green Party. These results underscore the substantial impact of the Gaza issue on the electorate, with voters from diverse backgrounds expressing concerns that have translated into tangible electoral shifts.
Labour’s challenge now is to address these concerns to prevent further erosion of support.
The rise of Reform UK
The results also revealed the rise of the hard-right Reform Party, led by Nigel Farage. With Reform now the third-largest political force in the UK, some analysts warned of the dangerous normalisation of extremist views.
Columnist Aditya Chakrabortty noted, “Reform is not a party, but a limited company majority-owned by one Nigel Paul Farage… His rise has been bankrolled by sugar-daddy businessmen and he now appears well placed to establish himself as the natural magnet for dark money in British politics.” The success of Reform in areas that were once Labour strongholds poses a significant threat to Starmer’s government. Chakrabortty argued that Labour must make urgent improvements in these de-industrialised areas to counter Farage’s growing influence.
Damaged SNP
The election was a disaster for the Scottish National Party (SNP), who lost 38 seats to leave them with just nine. In the wake of the significant setbacks, its leader, John Swinney, called for a period of “soul searching”.
The Labour Party’s resurgence in Scotland was marked by winning 37 out of 57 constituencies, a gain of 36 seats, reflecting a shift in voter priorities away from independence. Swinney, who took leadership of the SNP just eight weeks before the election, acknowledged the party’s failure to convince voters of the urgency of independence.
Labour’s Scottish leader, Anas Sarwar, credited with orchestrating Labour’s revival, stressed the importance of translating this general election success into victory in the next Holyrood election. For the SNP, the election results signal a need to rebuild and reconsider their strategy in the face of changing voter sentiments.
As Britain navigates this new political landscape, the pressure on Keir Starmer and the Labour government to deliver meaningful change is immense.
Balancing international obligations, domestic reforms, and managing the threat posed by the hard-right will define the coming months.
Writing for Time, Emma Norris held a more optimistic view, “The inheritance facing this government is daunting, and the new prime minister will need to act quickly — and start to show results. But while these problems would challenge any government, Starmer has the opportunity — and seemingly the resolve — to govern differently. This means ending policy instability that has stymied relations with industry; reforming public services; rebuilding ministerial relations with the civil service; working beyond Whitehall; and, perhaps most importantly, bringing a sense of ambition to what government can help achieve.
“None of this is easy. But, for the first time in a long while, it feels possible.”
British-Pakistani winners
A handful of British-Pakistanis secured seats in the general election.
Dr Zubir Ahmed, representing the Labour Party from Glasgow, celebrated a significant win, solidifying Labour’s stronghold in the city. Naushabah Khan, another Labour candidate, successfully won a seat from the Conservatives, marking a pivotal gain for Labour.
Saqib Bhatti, contesting for the Conservative Party, secured re-election, underscoring his strong ties with local constituents.
Dr Rosena Allin-Khan retained her seat in London’s Tooting, reaffirming her status as a significant political figure.
Shabana Mahmood, the shadow justice secretary before the election, won in Birmingham Ladywood, another area with a high proportion of Muslim voters, beating the independent Akhmed Yakoob by about 3,500 votes.
Labour’s Naz Shah retained Bradford West for her party — but with a very small majority. Ms Shah won 11,724 votes, winning by just 707 votes.
Published in Dawn, July 6th, 2024
