If the 2025 Oscar nominations were announced today, what would Gold Derby predict would be the nominees and winners? Our predictions center officially opened on July 1, 2024 and already more than 700 people have made their nominations forecasts in the eight top categories for picture, directing, acting and writing. So who’s out front to claim the golden trophies, according to the initial Gold Derby Oscar predictions 2025?
Below, see a snapshot in time of our Oscar racetrack odds, updated July 3. Our odds are based on the combined forecasts of Experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, Editors who cover awards year-round for this website, Top 24 Users who did the best predicting the winners last time, All-Star Users who had the best prediction scores over the last two years, and the mass of Users who make up our biggest predictions bloc.
As we begin this new event, there are 66 contenders for Best Picture. Please keep in mind that we will update the predictions center weekly by adding, deleting and changing movies, performers and more. These updates will be made based on new information from the studios/campaigners provided to us. A movie and its contenders can only be added once it has a U.S. distributor and an approximate or firm release date in 2024. In a few months, we will add all of the other crafts categories, plus animation, documentary, international and the shorts.
SEE Oscars 2025: Make your extremely early nominee predictions today!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees
1. “Sing Sing” — 7/1
2. “Dune: Part Two” — 8/1
3. “Blitz” — 8/1
4. “Conclave” — 9/1
5. “Anora” — 21/2
6. “Emilia Perez” — 11/1
7. “Joker: Folie à Deux” — 15/1
8. “Gladiator II” — 20/1
9. “Nickel Boys” — 22/1
10. “The Piano Lesson” — 25/1
Predicted Spoilers
“A Real Pain,” “Hard Truths,” “Wicked,” “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
See more Best Picture contenders …
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Steve McQueen (“Blitz”) — 4/1
2. Sean Baker (“Anora”) — 11/2
3. Edward Berger (“Conclave”) — 13/2
4. Denis Villeneuve (“Dune: Part Two”) — 7/1
5. Greg Kwedar (“Sing Sing”) — 8/1
Predicted Spoilers
Ridley Scott (“Gladiator II”), Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Perez”), Mohammad Rasoulof (“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”), Todd Phillips (“Joker: Folie à Deux”)
See more Best Director contenders …
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
1. Amy Adams (“Nightbitch”) — 5/1
2. Mikey Madison (“Anora”) — 11/2
3. Karla Sofia Gascon (“Emilia Perez”) — 11/2
4. Saoirse Ronan (“Blitz”) — 7/1
5. Lady Gaga (“Joker: Folie à Deux”) — 8/1
Predicted Spoilers
Marianne Jean-Baptiste (“Hard Truths”), June Squibb (“Thelma”), Tilda Swinton (“The Room Next Door”), Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”)
See more Best Actress contenders …
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”) — 82/25
2. Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”) — 4/1
3. Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker: Folie à Deux”) — 6/1
4. Paul Mescal (“Gladiator II”) — 15/2
5. John David Washington (“The Piano Lesson”) — 16/1
Predicted Spoilers
Sebastian Stan (“A Different Man”), Jesse Plemons (“Kinds of Kindness”), Anthony Hopkins (“One Life”), Andrew Garfield (“We Live in Time”)
See more Best Actor contenders …
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
1. Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”) — 18/5
2. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“Nickel Boys”) — 9/2
3. Zoe Saldana (“Emilia Perez”) — 5/1
4. Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”) — 6/1
5. Toni Collette (“Juror #2”) — 23/2
Predicted Spoilers
Joan Chen (“Didi”), Julianne Moore (“The Room Next Door”), Michelle Yeoh (“Wicked”), Selena Gomez (“Emilia Perez”)
See more Best Supporting Actress contenders …
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Samuel L. Jackson (“The Piano Lesson”) — 71/20
2. Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”) — 9/2
3. Clarence Maclin (“Sing Sing”) — 9/2
4. Stanley Tucci (“Conclave”) — 8/1
5. John Lithgow (“Conclave”) — 10/1
Predicted Spoilers
Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”), Pedro Pascal (“Gladiator II”), Elliott Heffernan (“Blitz”), Harris Dickinson (“Blitz”)
See more Best Supporting Actor contenders …
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees
1. “Sing Sing” — 69/20
2. “Conclave” — 4/1
3. “Nickel Boys” — 7/1
4. “Nightbitch” — 15/2
5. “Dune: Part Two” — 17/2
Predicted Spoilers
“The Piano Lesson,” “Hit Man,” “Gladiator II,” “Joker: Folie à Deux”
See more Best Adapted Screenplay contenders …
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees
1. “Anora” — 19/5
2. “Blitz” — 4/1
3. “Hard Truths” — 11/2
4. “Emilia Perez” — 7/1
5. “A Real Pain” — 15/2
Predicted Spoilers
“The Room Next Door,” “The Substance,” “We Live in Time,” “Challengers”
See more Best Original Screenplay contenders …
PREDICT the 2025 Oscar nominees through January 17
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