Silver had Trump at 65% to win, before the debate!
Nate Silver’s forecast has Trump ay 65% and Biden 35%. This seems about right to me, reflecting that while the popular vote is close, Trump leads in all the battleground states.
The Economist has Trump at 70% and 538 has him at just 49%. The 538 model seems far too cautious. Basically they are hedging their bets by saying it is so far out that anything could happen from Trump winning by 200 electoral votes to Biden winning by 200 electoral votes. They say there is a 22% chance Biden could win in a landslide. I can’t tally that with all the polls of the last year showing him behind in the battlegrounds.
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