Armenia is having a bad decade. The military ascendency was achieved in the 1990s, allowing it to create the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, which ended in military defeat. Its neighbors are mostly hostile or suspicious, and Russia, its former military guarantor, has washed its hands of the government in Yerevan.
Only Iran shows any support, but its increasingly close relationship with the Kremlin and interest in expanding trade routes with Russia through Armenia’s arch-enemy, Azerbaijan, makes its position less certain.
Armenian fears were driven home by Azerbaijan’s two stunning victories in 2020 and September 2023, when it ultimately conquered Nagorno-Karabakh and forced the departure of more than 100,000 Armenians.
What to do? Step forward France.
Aside from their historical ties, including a deep-rooted Armenian diaspora, France has long sought to exert diplomatic influence in the South Caucasus. The country was a leader within the OSCE Minsk Group, which was created to establish a peaceful resolution to the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. Comprising co-chairs France, Russia, and the US, the group’s efforts, ultimately, fell short of achieving a long-lasting resolution. This time France hopes to make a more lasting impact.
As an immediate step, France has bolstered Armenia’s defenses by providing air defense radars and a forthcoming agreement will see the delivery of Mistral anti-air missiles. It has also addressed Armenian worries that there might be further escalation in the region, with President Emmanuel Macron reiterating an unwavering commitment to Armenia’s independence, territorial integrity, and democratic processes, before his meeting with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in February.
These steps set alarm bells ringing for Azerbaijan’s authoritarian leader Ilham Aliyev and his government. A stronger Armenia is better able to resist pressure from its victorious neighbor, and French involvement clearly strengthens its hand. Azerbaijan accused France of planting the seeds of new military conflict, while Russia — whose share of Armenian military equipment has fallen from about 90% to around 15% — suggested nothing good would come from a NATO country “penetrating” the South Caucasus.
There are however limits to what France can do. It’s 2,000 miles from Paris to Yerevan and a quick look at the map explains that shipping or flying in people and goods is not easy if landlocked Armenia’s allies object.
France alone cannot provide the security guarantees that Armenia needs in the event of a full-scale invasion from Azerbaijan.
But it does enjoy wider influence as a key power within the European Union (EU) and has been among those pushing for broader Western support. In April, Pashinyan met European Commission President Ursula von Der Leyen and Secretary of State Antony Blinken to agree on a $350m aid deal.
The plan aims to strengthen Armenia’s socio-economic resilience and support key areas such as trade diversification, infrastructure development, energy, and aviation safety. The US element of the package — about $65m — aims to attract investment, enhance technology trade, increase cybersecurity cooperation, and expand energy diversification.
While tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan have eased somewhat, as seen in their efforts to agree a peace deal — including a delimitation commission to define borders and Armenia’s recent historic return of several villages to Azerbaijan — the outcome is far from guaranteed.
Many Armenians fear that Azerbaijan, riding high on its military victories, substantial energy revenues, and its importance to Turkey, Russia, and Iran, will demand more. Recent joint military exercises between Turkey and Azerbaijan and the near-completion of the Zangazur corridor underscore these geopolitical shifts.
Given the stakes, the West, particularly the EU, should rethink its strategy in the South Caucasus. This should involve a comprehensive security cooperation initiative aimed at strengthening and diversifying Armenia’s defenses. It could:
Failure to act decisively could force Armenia into alliances with less savory partners or embolden Azerbaijan and Russia, thus undermining regional stability. The West must evolve from mere mediation to proactive support, lest delays render solutions unattainable and consequences irreversible.
Bianca Leon is a former intern with the Democratic Resilience program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA.) She holds a B.A. in International Relations & Diplomacy as well as Italian from Dominican University.
SaraJane Rzegocki is a Senior Program Officer with the Democratic Resilience Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis. Her interests include rule of law, gender politics, and energy. SaraJane holds an M.A. in Political Science with a concentration in European Union Policy Studies from James Madison University and a B.S. in Public Policy and Administration from James Madison University.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.
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