Let’s face it: there’s little mystery when it comes to the streaming series that’s poised to dominate the nominations in the comedy categories at the forthcoming Emmys when bids are revealed on July 17. It’s all about FX’s “The Bear,” which carted off 10 trophies (out of 13 nominations) for its first season and is poised to build even on that impressive haul in Season 2. It could in fact challenge the all-time record for a comedy series of 22 noms generated by “30 Rock” in 2009.
You will get no argument from Gold Derby senior editors Daniel Montgomery, Denton Davidson and Marcus James Dixon and news and features editor Ray Richmond, who espoused the likelihood of a “Bear” market throughout the six acting categories (and beyond) during a recent comedy-focused slugfest. “(‘The Bear’) is the clear frontrunner, and I just think it’s steamrolling,” Davidson believes. “The excitement is all there, and it was just such an epic season.” Watch the quartet’s lively discussion above.
While the editors were only examining the nomination phase that culminates with the mid-July announcement, they couldn’t help but look ahead to the probability of how it will lead to victories for the series that launched its third season over Hulu on June 26 – which will also likely generate added momentum for a program that doesn’t appear to need it. Davidson is picking it to win Best Comedy Series, as are Montgomery and Richmond, who believes the show’s quality merits consideration as one of the all-time television greats. Montgomery adds, “I do think (the race) is closer than it might seem. When ‘The Bear’ won a year ago, it was almost unprecedented for a dramatic-skewing comedy to win in that category. They almost always go with the show that makes you laugh even when the dramedy is the one with the buzz. So I don’t think ‘The Bear’ necessarily has a stranglehold on it.”
Dixon is hoping that’s true, as he’s going with HBO’s “Hacks” to take the biggest comedy Emmy in an upset. “For me, it’s what show makes me laugh, and ‘Hacks’ is my favorite show of the year, comedy or drama. So it’s also a ‘hope-diction,’ to steal a word from my colleague Joyce Eng. I want to see something win that gives me so much joy.”
Speaking of “The Bear” vs. “Hacks,” the choice in comedy actress stands to be a major battle between three contenders who all have won performing Emmys: Ayo Edibiri for “The Bear” (the most recent victor in comedy supporting who switched categories for Season 2), Jean Smart for “Hacks” (a two-time winner in the category who was ineligible in 2023) and Quinta Brunson for “Abbott Elementary” (who won in 2023).
“This is a complete flip of the coin, the toughest category to pick in all of the Emmys,” Richmond believes. “Ayo is the IT girl of the moment, but Jean is forever the IT woman.” Davidson reasons that there are full “Bear” episodes that Edebiri isn’t even in during the second season. “She’s not running the show in he way that Jean Smart is on ‘Hacks’,” he reasons. Adds Montgomery: “I’ve got Ayo at the moment, but I’m not confident in that. I think Jean could easily come back and win.” But of course, both women need to be nominated first.” Dixon, meanwhile, is going with Smart, comparing her potential dominance in her “Hacks” role to that of Julia Louis-Dreyfus in “Veep,” who won six consecutive times in the category. “If ‘Hacks’ goes six seasons, I think Jean can win six, too,” he stresses.
At the opposite end of the prediction spectrum sits Best Comedy Actor, where “The Bear’s” Jeremy Allen White is the most overwhelming of favorites. In point of fact, he has yet to lose for his role as Carmy Berzatto at a major awards show, earning the Emmy a year ago along with a pair of SAG, Globe Globe and Critics Choice honors. “This is a slam dunk,” Davidson maintains. “He can’t be stopped.” Adds Dixon: “This category loves doing two in a row, so I think Jeremy’s pretty safe.” The only question among the editors going into the nominations would seem to be the identity of the other four nominees who are competing for second place. Montgomery is going with Martin Short and Steve Martin for “Only Murders in the Building,” Larry David for “Curb Your Enthusiasm” and Kelsey Grammer for the reboot of “Frasier,” though he adds “that last spot is a tricky one.”
PREDICT the 2024 Emmy nominees through July 17
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