Assessing the modification impact of vaccination on the relationship of the Discomfort Index with hand, foot, and mouth disease in Guizhou: A multicounty study

by Jie Sun, Wangjian Zhang, Guanghai Yao, Jing Gu, Wenjing Wu, Dan Wang, Zhicheng Du, Yuantao Hao

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a major public health issue in China while temperature and humidity are well-documented predictors. However, evidence on the combined effect of temperature and humidity is still limited. It also remains unclear whether such an effect could be modified by the enterovirus 71 (EV71) vaccination.

Based on 320,042 reported HFMD cases during the summer months between 2012 and 2019, we conducted a study utilizing Distributed Lag Non-Linear Models (DLNM) and time-varying DLNM to examine how China’s HFMD EV71 vaccine strategy would affect the correlation between meteorological conditions and HFMD risk.

The incidence of HFMD changed with the Discomfort Index in an arm-shaped form. The 14-day cumulative risk of HFMD exhibited a statistically significant increase during the period of 2017–2019 (following the implementation of the EV71 vaccine policy) compared to 2012–2016 (prior to the vaccine implementation). For the total population, the range of relative risk (RR) values for HFMD at the 75th, 90th, and 99th percentiles increased from 1.082–1.303 in 2012–2016 to 1.836–2.022 in 2017–2019. In the stratified analyses, Han Chinese areas show stronger relative growth, with RR values at the 75th, 90th, and 99th percentiles increased by 14.3%, 39.1%, and 134.4% post-vaccination, compared to increases of 22.7%, 41.6%, and 38.8% in minority areas. Similarly, boys showed greater increases (24.4%, 47.7%, 121.5%) compared to girls (8.1%, 28.1%, 58.3%). Additionally, the central Guizhou urban agglomeration displayed a tendency for stronger relative growth compared to other counties.

Although the EV71 vaccine policy has been implemented, it hasn’t effectively controlled the overall risk of HFMD. There’s been a shift in the main viral subtypes, potentially altering population susceptibility and influencing HFMD occurrences. The modulating effects of vaccine intervention may also be influenced by factors such as race, sex, and economic level.