Could this be the best draft class in Royals history?
Flags fly forever, but the post-championship hangover hit the Royals hard in 2018. Once the core of the championship team departed, what was left were over-the-hill veterans and not-ready-for-prime-time players. The 2018 Royals were dreadful, losing 104 games, but their reward for enduring that misery was getting the second overall pick in the 2019 draft.
A year after going heavy on college pitchers in the 2018 draft, the Royals had a chance to grab a real impact player. As our Shaun Newkirk wrote leading up to the draft, it was their chance to grab a star.
People said last year, probably myself included, that the 2018 draft was maybe the most important draft for the Royals, and while that may not be untrue, there is an argument that this year in more important. Yes, getting however many picks it was in the first however many picks in the first two rounds was great for adding value, having the #2 overall pick carries more weight. You don’t typically get to add a star level player at 18th overall. You can do that at #2, and the Royals need stars if they want to be in contention.
Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman was the consensus top pick of the draft, with Baltimore expected to select him. Texas prep shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. was pretty universally thought of as the second-best player, with Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and Fangraphs ranking him behind only Rutschman. Keith Law was a rare dissent, ranking Witt third behind Cal first baseman Andrew Vaughn, raising concerns about “backside collapse in his swing.”
Everyone knew Bobby Witt Jr. had five-tool talent, but he was old for a high school player, and as with any high school hitter, there were concerns about whether his hit tool would play at the pro level. In an early mock draft in January, Baseball America had him #2, but with some question marks.
How high Witt Jr. goes in the draft next spring will depend on the conviction that scouts have in his hit tool, as evaluators have questions about the amount of swing-and-miss in his game after his performance this summer. Still, he hit massive home runs at multiple events this summer against top competition and routinely impacts the game defensively thanks to his elite hands, quick footwork and the ability to throw on the run and from multiple arm slots.
It was clear that Bobby Witt Jr. represented the biggest upside after Rutschman, but some evaluators such as Newkirk, had doubts whether the Royals could be the team to develop a high school bat considering their track record.
Witt, if selected, brings a challenge the Royals have typically failed at recently: the development of high school players. Yes, there have been a few turn into some sort of major leaguers (Jake Junis, Jake Newberry, and Cam Gallagher) but none taken early or reaching high returns. The Royals have been run over by this risk more than not recently with players like Nick Pratto, Ashe Russell, MJ Melendez, and Nolan Watson. First round selections turned to first round struggles. So the selection of Witt will be taking that risk, once more but also knowing that risk can bring reward.
Fangraphs reported that the Royals had scouted Vanderbilt J.J. Bleday as a potential backup choice. But when it came time to choose, the first few picks were as expected, with Rutschman going to Baltimore #1, and Witt going to KC at #2. Then-Royals GM Dayton Moore praised his tools.
“A guy like Troy Tulowitzki comes to mind, although (Witt Jr.) is more of a speed player,” Moore said of Witt Jr. “He actually has some very similar tools to Mondi other than he’s not a switch hitter. Mondi absolutely flies. Bobby Witt Jr. is a plus runner, plus arm, has plus raw power. He’s hit home runs in major-league ballparks against the best competition his peer group has to offer.”
While the Royals gambled on a high school player in the first round, they went very college-heavy in the draft after that. Their next 15 picks were all college players, and after the draft was all said and done, just six of their 41 draftees were high schoolers - just two of them pitchers.
That strategy paid off in droves. Although second-round pick Brady McConnell out of Florida had his career derailed by injury and mental health issues, competitive balance pick Alec Marsh became the 8th pitcher drafted by the Royals since 2007 to make as many as 20 starts for them. The right-hander has had mixed results in the big leagues so far, but has shown an ability to miss bats with more strikeouts than innings pitched as as starter.
The Royals drafted two regulars in their starting lineup later in the draft. In round four, they nabbed Illinois second baseman Michael Massey, a prospect scouts raved about for his hit tools and defense, although there were concerns about his back issues. In the eleventh round, the Royals selected an overlooked first baseman from mid-major Old Dominion named Vinnie Pasquantino who had smashed 16 home runs with more walks than strikeouts for the Monarchs.
Grant Gambrell, a pitcher out of Oregon State drafted in round three, was a solid enough minor leaguer he was used as part of a trade to acquire Andrew Benintendi from the Red Sox. The Royals could also still get contributions from outfielder John Rave (round five), and relievers Noah Murdock (round seven) and Anthony Veneziano (round eleven)
The Royals took a few big swings later in the draft. Justin Hooper was considered a first-round talent out of high school in the 2015 draft as a left-handed pitcher. He instead went to UCLA and injured his arm, requiring Tommy John surgery. The Royals took a chance on him in the 13th round, but he never got in a game with them and was released during the canceled 2020 season.
Late in the draft in round 37, they selected Reggie Crawford, a two-way high school player ranked #411 by Baseball America. Crawford didn’t sign, and attended UConn, where he became a first-round pick by the Giants, and is now moving to the mound after spending a season as a first baseman.
To get a franchise player like Witt alone would make this one of the best draft classes in Royals history, but to also get (a) an above-average starting first baseman; (b) a starting second baseman showing some potential; and (c) a starting pitcher with an ability to strike hitters out makes this a phenomenal draft class.
The only other Royals draft classes that could rival this one with as many as four regular players that were drafted and signed by the Royals would be:
1986 - Tom Gordon, Bo Jackson, Greg Hibbard, David Howard
1991 - Mike Sweeney, Joe Randa, Joe Vitiello, Shane Halter
1992 - Johnny Damon, Jon Lieber, Michael Tucker, Larry Sutton
2007 - Mike Moustakas, Danny Duffy, Greg Holland, David Lough
2018 - Brady Singer, Kyle Isbel, Daniel Lynch IV, Kris Bubic
Considering Witt’s impact already, this draft class should surpass those all in quality and could very well be the best in club history.
