What we’re thinking as the dust settles on the 2024 NHL draft
The NHL draft is always a big inflection point for teams to chart the course of their future, and the Penguins lived up to that billing with a day that saw an important trade and six new players being selected.
The move with the most immediate impact thst Pittsburgh made yesterday was picking up Kevin Hayes and his contract (two years with a $3.57 million cap cost to them) AND a second round pick in 2025 from St. Louis for nothing.
It’s a curious move, and a very telling one for where the team is at. The Pens didn’t have a lot of cap space, but they spent a sizeable chunk of it on Hayes in order to get a pick. The instant reaction naturally might be to think about what Hayes can (or can’t) offer in 2024 for the Pens, but that misses the bigger context. Kyle Dubas and the Pens are in the business of acquiring future assets now.
It’s almost besides the point if Hayes has a redemptive season off his lousy 135 P/60 performance with the Blues, or if he’s only OK or even worse and makes fans yearn for the days when Jeff Carter was the overpaid and underperforming veteran.
Surely the Pens will be hoping Hayes has something to offer and can (in name at least) be a reason for trying to get back to the playoffs. Beyond that, what they’re really done is cast eyes to the future post-Crosby era by picking up a future asset.
Call it good or call it bad but recognize a shift into a new mindset when it’s here.
Mid-round and late-round picks are usually low percentage plays that could pan out as found money down the line, but usually have little NHL impact. That said, there’s some fun momentum about the later picks the Pens made. Which is cool and fun and great; some of the fun of getting invested in a hockey team is the slow burn of watching and hoping young players slowly grow and burn up the ranks for years.
But the primary focus on the draft for Pittsburgh is and always will be how they fare with their first two picks at 44 and 46. Overall, reactions have been positive.
First up, defenseman Harrison Brunicke.
Brunicke is one of the better skating defensemen in this class. At 6’3. His reach is like a damn eagle and that makes it difficult to both disposses him of the puck, get around him in 1:1 situations, and beat him to loose pucks that have been dumped in.
— Jesse Marshall (@jmarshfof) June 29, 2024
Corey Pronman of The Athletic was high on Brunicke entering day two as well.
Brunicke was solid on a bottom-feeding Kamloops team this season and played well for Canada’s U18 team to end his year. Brunicke is a toolsy defenseman. He’s 6-3, skates well and has a strong offensive skill level. On his best shift with the way he can rush up ice and activate off the blue line, he looks like a legit NHL prospect. Brunicke can make some tough plays, but he forces a lot of his decisions, doesn’t always see the ice well and is running around in his own end. He probably isn’t a big points type as a pro, but with his feet, length and a strong compete level, if he’s just OK with the puck, he can be a third-pair defenseman.
Solid play at the U18 puts Brunicke on an upward trajectory. The Pens’ list of impressive right shot defensive prospects was basically non-existent before yesterday. It will take time and development to see how the story ends, but there’s reason to feel optimistic about the selection.
Next up, Tanner Howe at 46. This will be a very interesting prospect with an excitable style of play. Comparisons to Brendan Gallagher and even Brad Marchand abound as a smaller player with an edge and the ability to back it up with puck skills.
Tanner Howe, Penguins prospect, in a single clip: pic.twitter.com/w1DdkQkjWR
— Mitchell Brown (@MitchLBrown) June 29, 2024
Some have noted that Howe’s point profile hasn’t taken off, but there’s context behind it. Howe’s numbers early in his junior career were inflated by playing with Conor Bedard. This past season, with no Bedard, Howe was 25 points ahead of his nearest teammate on a rebuilding Regina club. In a weird way, playing solo and as the key player, Howe answered a lot for being the focal point and performing well. It would be ideal to see him do more, but that was never going to be in the cards. Focus more on the player style and ability beyond the stat-line in this instance.
Overal, the Pens added four badly needed right handed shot defensive prospects to their prospect pool, and two forwards with real upside. immediate grades are fun to consume, but are just wild guesses for actual NHL impact and will requires a long time to see what it really means.
