Does a poor stretch of play spell doom for the Royals?
The Royals defeated the Marlins for their first series win in nearly three weeks, but have still dropped 12 of 17 games in their worst stretch of the year and are now tied for the final Wild Card spot. We gathered our Royals Review writers to discuss whether this is a mere blip or a sign of bigger problems with this team.
Is it time to hit the panic button? Is this team showing its true colors or is this just a temporary rough patch?
Jacob Milham: No, we cannot let recency bias get us swept up in the moment. This is a rough patch, namely for the position players. We saw, ingested, and enjoyed this lineup to be at least average for most of the season. Sure, this team doesn’t have much room for error, but this too will pass.
Hokius: I don’t know what hitting the panic button would even look like, but I don’t think this is it.
Max Rieper: The Royals are 44-38, only eight teams in club history have won more games in their first 82 games, and only the 2015 championship team has done it since 1990. Most every team will have some rough stretch. Last year’s Diamondbacks had a terrible stretch where they lost 16 of 24 games in July and fell under .500 in August. Their season seemed doomed but they eventually won the pennant.
That being said, they do need to right the ship soon. We don’t know how young players will respond to this kind of pressure and adversity and you don’t want things to spiral out of control.
Matthew LaMar: It is not time to hit the panic button. I have brought this up before and will keep bringing it up, but: at the beginning of the season, we all would have been ecstatic if the Royals had been on a legit 87-win pace, which is what they’re at right now. We knew they were going to be a more talented, but still flawed, team than last year’s. Nothing we’ve seen so far has been any cause for long-term unhappiness.
What is the #1 biggest problem with this team right now?
Matthew LaMar: They have precious little high-end position player talent. Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez are great. But the Royals have had 14 players accrue 10 or more plate appearances this year. By Fangraphs’ version of Wins Above Replacement, only three have put up 1 or more WAR, and only four have hit for better than league average. This is why the Royals go on slumps—they’ve got a lot of mediocre players. It’s an improvement over having bad players for sure. But nobody else has really stepped up. Well, minus Freddy Fermin, who has been great in limited time.
Max Rieper: The bullpen can’t strike anyone out. The offense has its limitations, but they are above league-average in runs-scored-per-game this year. They’ll get better production from their outfield, whether its through MJ Melendez and Hunter Renfroe finally figuring things out, or a trade to bring in some help.
But the bullpen has been an issue all season long, and there’s no reason to think they’ll suddenly figure out how to miss bats. I have always been wary of bringing in free agent relievers, and this season is a good illustration of why - reliever performance is hard to predict and players with high salaries are harder to get rid of. They’re going to need some better options out there and Matt Quatraro will likely have to lean on his starters a bit more to avoid going to a leaky bullpen.
Jacob Milham: The top problem with this team has to be its outfield. Kyle Isbel, MJ Melendez, and Hunter Renfroe are all solid defensive players, but having those three at the bottom of your lineup is a big issue. Look further down the system, and the outfield becomes even more of a problem. The outfield traditionally offers more powerful, productive bats. Yet Kansas City’s outfield sits last in wRC+ (71), OBP (.270), and is an overall negative this season.
Hokius: The biggest problem with this team right now is a lack of discipline/trying too hard. Everyone is pressing and it’s leading them to make mistakes. This is still a talented team, but they’re going to need to get out of their own way if they’re going to go back to winning games.
We still have a month to go before the trade deadline, but what are your thoughts on how the Royals should be approaching it?
Matthew LaMar: The Royals should go for broke here. Anyone and everyone should be used as trade bait, and that includes Gavin Cross and Blake Mitchell. Nobody is coming from the farm this year or next year to save the team, and the time on how long Salvy will be able to be an impact player is ticking. I would be very, very interested in a guy like Luis Robert Jr., for instance, or other multi-year solutions.
Jacob Milham: Royals fans needed to temper their trade deadline expectations, and the recent rough stretch proves that further. This front office cannot act like they are one or two players away from a pennant. They need to be cautious buyers, retaining what little prospect value they have while helping the outfield, bullpen, or both. They need to wait out the market and strike closer to July 30.
Max Rieper: In 2003, the Royals made a surprise run and were in first much of the summer. Not wanting to hurt their chances in the future, they made some small but effective trades for rentals for guys like pitchers Brian Anderson and Curtis Leskanic and outfielder Rondell White, without giving up any prospects who panned out. That would make a lot of sense for this year’s team - give up some lottery tickets or low-ceiling AAA guys in order to get someone that can help for two months. Sure it would be nice to get someone that can help next year too, but the asking price will be higher - are the Royals willing to deplete talent in an already thin system?
Hokius: I think a lot of that depends on how quickly they can get out of their own way. If it’s in the next week or two, let’s get some bullpen help and one more hitter. If it isn’t, go ahead and trade away guys who aren’t likely to be here next year like Wacha.
On a scale of 1-10, what is your confidence level that the Royals can reach the post-season at this point?
Jacob Milham: 6.5. This Cleveland series can move that up or down a point, but my gut still says this team clinches a Wild Card spot.
Matthew LaMar: I will put my confidence level at a 3, which is no knock against the Royals. I think they end up with a winning record and just barely miss the postseason by a few games. Nobody had the 56-win Royals improving by such a huge amount this year, and 82-86 wins (which is likely where they will end up) just won’t quite get it done. I wouldn’t be surprised if they did make it though.
Max Rieper: I think a solid 6. I think the Royals are still a mid-80s win team and the American League has a lot of mediocrity after the Yankees and Orioles. I think the Guardians are due for some major regression and can be caught, so I expect the Royals to be in a big jumbled mess with a bunch of teams for a playoff spot in the final week of the season. The Royals have some obvious flaws, but almost every team has some flaws to their roster. Having a very good starting rotation and an MVP candidate will help paper over roster blemishes.
Hokius: Two weeks ago, it was at a 10. This stretch of poor play has gone a lot longer and been a lot worse than I expected. I knew they were playing some over their heads, but now they’re definitely playing under their true talent level with no signs that they’re coming out of it (prior to Wednesday’s game, at least.) I guess I’m at like a 6.5. I still think it’s very possible for them, but they’re going to have to find their way out of this funk and they’re going to have to do it soon enough to justify the team bringing in additional MLB talent at the deadline.
I wrote all of the above before they played Wednesday’s game. Then they played it. That eighth inning looked like the Royals we saw earlier this season. Even that version needs to be improved, with a strikeout guy or two in the bullpen plus one additional hitter, but that eighth-inning rally looked a lot like them breaking out of their slump and restores a lot of the hope I’d lost over the past week.
