President Biden and former President Trump are tied in a hypothetical 2024 general election match-up in Wisconsin, according to a poll released Wednesday of registered and likely voters in the key battleground state.
The Marquette Law School poll, conducted June 12-20, shows registered voters in Wisconsin split between Biden and Trump, at 50 percent each, when respondents were asked to select one of the two candidates. Likely voters responded similarly, with 51 percent for Biden and 49 percent for Trump.
When presented with the third option of “undecided,” registered voters still split evenly, at 44 percent apiece for each candidate, with 12 percent say they haven’t decided. Likely voters skew slightly more toward Biden — 47 percent, compared to Trump’s 44 percent — and 9 percent for “undecided.” The results, however, remain within the poll’s margin of error.
These results show a potential vulnerability for Trump and opportunity for Biden.
Among registered voters, Biden’s support remained at 44 percent in the three polls conducted this year. Trump’s support, however, dipped by 3 points since April 2024, when his support was at 47 percent. The “undecided” vote also increased by 4 points among registered voters, up from 8 percent in April.
Among likely voters, Biden’s support increased 2 points from April, when it was at 45 percent, while Trump’s support declined 4 points, from 48 percent in April. The “undecided” vote increased from 6 percent in April 2024 to 9 percent in June 2024.
Biden fares less well on hypothetical ballots including third-party and independent candidates, who, the latest poll would suggest, are more of a threat to Biden’s reelection chances than to Trump’s.
Wisconsin voters swing toward Trump when asked to pick between multiple candidates, including Trump, Biden, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, Cornel West and Chase Oliver.
Among registered voters with those options, Trump gets 43 percent, Biden gets 40 percent, Kennedy gets 8 percent, West gets 4 percent, and Stein and Oliver each get 2 percent.
Among likely voters, Trump gets 44 percent, Biden gets 42 percent, Kennedy gets 7 percent, West gets 3 percent, Stein gets 2 percent, and Oliver gets 1 percent.
In the multiple-candidate races, Trump’s small lead over Biden has remained steady since January, but Kennedy’s support has seen a notable drop.
Among registered voters, Kennedy has seen his support drop from 16 percent in January, to 13 percent in April, to 8 percent in June. Among likely voters, his support has dropped from 13 percent in January, to 12 percent in April, to 7 percent in June.
In the Decision Desk HQ Wisconsin polling average, Biden and Trump are nearly tied in a head-to-head match-up, with Biden leading by 0.2 points. In the Decision Desk HQ polling average of hypothetical three-way match-ups in Wisconsin, Biden maintains a slight lead, at 42 percent, followed by Trump’s 40.6 percent and Kennedy’s 7.7 percent.
The poll in Wisconsin included 871 registered voters and had a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points. Among the 784 likely voters, the margin of error was 4.9 percentage points.
