A new hybrid machine learning model for predicting the renewal life of patents

by Ashit Kumar, Pritam Ranjan, Arnab Koley, Shadab Danish

In almost every country, patents need to be renewed multiple times after they are granted. A patentee assesses the value of the patent and then pays a renewal fee to keep it active for another stipulated period. The factors that characterize the value of a patent is subjective. This paper aims to address the research gap of building an accurate model for predicting the renewal life (often considered as a substitute for the patent value) of Indian patents, and identification of significant factors that influence the renewal life. This study uses an extensive data set collected from the Indian Patent Office for all granted patents filed between 1995 and 2005. The popular statistical and machine learning algorithms do not result in accurate predictive models, because the patent renewal life distribution (at least for the Indian patents) shows unusual spikes at the two extreme values, which makes the modeling task more challenging. We propose a new two-stage hybrid model by combining an efficient multi-class classifier and a binomial regression model for predicting the complex renewal data distribution. We conducted a comparative analysis of the proposed model with several state-of-the-art machine learning and statistical models. The results show that the proposed hybrid model gives 90% accuracy as compared to the best competitor which gives only 40% accuracy.