LOS ANGELES — In early December, a day after a loss in which he missed 10 shots and seven free throws, Isaiah Collier stepped into former USC assistant coach Eric Mobley’s office for some guidance.
Two weeks earlier, the USC freshman had been mocked as the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NBA draft by ESPN after a few games of college basketball, the top-ranked point guard in the nation in the class of 2023. But Collier’s game was a confounding paradox at this level, his offensive and defensive instincts not quite caught up to NBA-ready speed and body control. Within a handful of games, his public stock began to fall, averaging more turnovers than assists through his first nine games.
So Mobley, knowing the pressure on Collier’s shoulders, told him of his son Evan Mobley’s journey, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2021 draft after going one-and-done at USC. Collier, like Evan, was already at the top of the mountain, Mobley said.
“I told him, I said, ‘They have nothing else to do but to pick your game apart,’” Mobley told the Southern California News Group in December.
For months, since USC’s midseason collapse and Collier faded from public discourse with a monthlong broken hand, they have picked. And picked. And picked some more. Since that ESPN-pinned high point in the winter, Collier has seemingly fallen off the lottery map, the positives in his profile chipped away by prognosticators to dig up the obvious flaws beneath. He’s widely projected to be selected in the 20s during Wednesday’s first round, The Athletic even sliding him as low as 26th.
Through one lens, the souring is understandable. Collier measured just 6-foot-2½ at the NBA Combine, with a wingspan of about 6-5. His shot (33.8% from 3-point range, 67% from the free-throw line), defense and decision-making were shaky throughout his freshman year. But Collier returned in Pac-12 play after his injury with a more polished game, with few freshmen in the country matching his blend of scoring burden (16.3 points a game) with efficiency (49% from the field).
As fellow USC freshman Bronny James – understandably – has become the story of the draft amid widespread projection he could join his father with the Lakers, Collier’s slide could quietly make him one of the biggest steals on Wednesday at Brooklyn’s Barclays Center.
Here’s a primer on Collier, James and USC’s potential draftees.
2023-24 stats: 16.3 PPG, 4.3 APG, 3.3 TO/G, 49% FG
Likely pick range: 15-25
Team fits: Toronto Raptors (No. 19), Phoenix Suns (No. 22), New York Knicks (No. 24)
Outlook: Collier’s shot, decision-making and defensive effort are in need of continued development, but the strengths that made the 19-year-old a projected top pick a year ago – vision, strength, finishing ability under the rim – shone at times during his freshman year at USC. He’d be a natural fit on a rebuilding team like the Toronto Raptors, or a team in need of a backup point guard like Phoenix.
2023-24 stats: 4.8 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.1 APG, 37% FG
Likely pick range: 50-58
Team fits: Lakers (No. 55)
Outlook: Let’s table the nepotism conversation for now. James, 19, is a better NBA prospect than he’s widely given credit for, even standing at 6-1½, thanks to his defensive upside and IQ. Even after ramping back up from a frightening cardiac arrest last summer, though, James was notably passive offensively as a freshman at USC, and needs to showcase the ability to make more confident shot-making decisions at the next level.
2023-24 stats: 16.5 PPG, 3.0 APG, 42% 3FG
Likely pick range: 40-undrafted
Team fits: Miami Heat (No. 43), San Antonio Spurs (No. 48)
Outlook: USC’s captain has clawed his way into potential second-round consideration after impressing at the G-League Elite Camp and the combine, molding himself into one of the best shooters in the country across three years at USC. At 23, he faces challenges in size (6-1) and athleticism, but Ellis’ shot-making ability should warrant him a late second-round pick or a 10-day look; he’s been hosted for pre-draft workouts by nine teams, according to HoopsHype.
