Smith might be the best shooter in his class.
Tyler Smith is a dynamite three-point shooter who — at an athletic 6’9” — might be the best gamble available for the Cleveland Cavaliers in the 2024 NBA Draft.
General information:
G-League Ignite
Position: Power forward
Year: Rookie
Stats: 13.4 pts (47.6% FG / 36.4 3PT% / 72.5 FT%), 5 rebounds, 1.2 assists
Measurables:
Age: 19
Height: 6 ft 9 inches
Weight: 223.8
Wingspan: 7’1” ft
Jumbo-sized floor spacers are one of the most coveted assets in today’s NBA. Smith’s sharpshooting talent in the frontcourt makes him a potential crown jewel.
A sweet jumper is the obvious selling point for Smith. He’s an elite catch-and-shoot threat with a high-arching release that makes him tough to contest. Smith shot efficiently on a diverse shot profile, connecting on pick-and-pop situations with ease. He’s an easy prospect to believe in when focusing solely on his three-point accuracy.
Pairing Smith’s shooting with his athleticism might be the key to reaching his ceiling. He has room to grow as a creator — but placed in the 73rd percentile as a rim-finisher and flushed home 28 dunks in 27 games with the Ignite. Smith would be a deadly offensive weapon if he blossomed into a player who can roll or pop on screening actions at the NBA level.
Tyler Smith is a 6'11 PF who presents some upside but also already has translatable skills. Threw this together to show some of his best dunks, threes, blocks, lay-ups, and passes. pic.twitter.com/tf9FPkdYEo
— Kris Pursiainen (@krispursiainen) June 18, 2024
This agility will be a swing factor on defense, as well. Smith did not have a particularly strong year defensively but his physical build and leaping ability are reasons to hold out faith in his defensive capabilities. He has promise as a roaming rim protector if he can learn to be more engaged away from the ball. Smith’s stance might be upright but there’s reason to believe he can one day hold his own against perimeter players, as well.
At just 19 years old, Smith’s youth is another selling point. His game is raw but the team that drafts him will have a chance to shape him into the player they want him to become. He has enough mobility to distance himself from other players of his mold. He’s not a lumbering stretch-four to the degree of Ryan Anderson, Georges Niang or Channing Frye, for example. Smith has the tools to be much more on both ends of the floor.
Smith is underdeveloped. He has the now-defunct G-League Ignite to thank for at least some of that. However, the lack of structure around him in a formable year is just one obstacle to overcome when analyzing Smith’s value. The warts he showed last season are not easy to ignore regardless of circumstance.
His shooting is something that should translate with ease. It’s Smith’s mobility and feel for the game that could make or break his career. He didn’t display much knack for playmaking or creating his own shot. Smith ended the season with equal assists to turnovers while struggling to beat defenders off the dribble.
He has a hard time with physicality on both ends of the floor. This combined with Smith’s rough instincts on defense is a glaring concern. He was behind on rotations and often exposed when defending pick-and-roll actions. Maybe Smith was simply a product of his environment. But he was vulnerable too often for anyone to feel overly confident in his abilities. This is perhaps the biggest gambling aspect of his development.
Smith is a high-risk, high-reward prospect. There’s a real outcome where he is a turnstile defensively and never poses enough of a scoring threat to justify keeping him on the floor. Conversely, Smith can become a prolific shooter whose athleticism translates to both defense and offense. The team that drafts him will be betting on the latter.
Smith has flashed the potential to be a volume perimeter scorer. This would pair nicely with either one of Cleveland’s bigs and bolster an otherwise weak frontcourt rotation. The best version of Smith slides in perfectly for the Cavaliers as a backup stretch four who can defend multiple positions.
This is likely not a pick that would reap instant rewards. It could be years before Smith is polished enough to play consistent minutes for an NBA contender. That might be impossible to accept for the Cavs — who have every reason to plan for deep playoff runs throughout the foreseeable future.
Smith’s conflicting timeline shouldn’t be much of an issue. He would be well worth the wait if his developmental track leads Smith to being an elite stretch-big. He may be a flat-out dud at the NBA level. But with the 20th pick in the draft, you can justify taking the risk.
