An area of stormy weather in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico could still become a tropical depression this weekend, though its odds of developing decreased Saturday, forecasters said.
An area of stormy weather in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico could still become a tropical depression this weekend before reaching the coast of northeastern Mexico on Sunday night, forecasters said.
The large area of showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf lacked a well-defined center early Sunday morning and its odds of developing have decreased since earlier in the week. However, heavy rain is likely to cause flooding in parts of southeastern Mexico and southern Texas regardless through the end of the weekend, the National Hurricane Center said Saturday. It is expected to drift slowly northwestward.
As of 2 a.m., Sunday, it had a 40% chance of developing in the next two to seven days, slightly lower odds than Saturday morning.
The next named storm will be Beryl.
The 2024 hurricane season, which officially began June 1, is expected to be extremely active.
In its annual May outlook, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that the 2024 hurricane season has an 85% chance of being above normal, with 17 to 25 named storms with minimum sustained winds of 39 mph, and eight to 13 hurricanes. An average year has 14 named storms and seven hurricanes.
In addition, NOAA has forecast four to seven major hurricanes for 2024, meaning those that are Category 3 or above.
Experts at Colorado State University stated in their 2024 forecast that the U.S. East Coast, including Florida, had a 34% chance of a major hurricane making landfall this year. The average from 1880-2020 was 21%.
Forecasters say that the record-warm water temperatures that now cover much of the Atlantic Ocean will continue into peak hurricane season from August to October. That warm water fuels hurricanes. By early June, the tropical Atlantic was already as hot as it usually is in mid-August — peak hurricane season.
Hurricane season officially ends Nov. 30.
