This is a steal for the Jags.
Trevor Lawrence became the latest quarterback to get a huge contract, and now that details are out on the deal it’s looking more and more like one of the best contracts in the NFL for his team. The oft-overlooked leader of the Jaguars, Lawrence is perhaps one of the greatest current examples of the disconnect between box score scouting and actually watching him play — which is part of what makes this deal so great for Jacksonville.
Lawrence’s contract will end up being worth $40.4M in Average Annual Value (AAV) when accounting for guarantees and bonuses. It makes him the 11th highest-paid quarterback in the league in AAV, despite being a former No. 1 pick and the latest to join the second contract club.
It’s been easy for casual fans to overlook just how prolific a passer Lawrence has become. Outside of his disastrous rookie season under Urban Meyer, Lawrence has evolved into a reliable 4,000+ yard passer who is efficient with the ball (completing over 65% of passes in each of the last two years), while having an incredible two-year TD/INT ratio of 46/22. He’s also done all this without having an All-World receiving corps with Calvin Ridley as his No. 1, and Christian Kirk in the No. 2 spot.
Now as he enters 2024 we’re seeing a Jaguars team with more receiving talent spread around the field and focused less on one individual player. There’s little doubt that losing Ridley is tough, but the Jaguars mitigated the loss by forming a true, three-deep corps with Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. The combination of Davis and Thomas Jr. should be more than enough to exceed Ridley’s production, but more importantly give a process thrower like Lawrence more targets around the field — which is always a good thing.
That’s where we get to the brass tacks of this deal. Trevor Lawrence is on the precipice of truly breaking out. Doug Pederson is growing more and more comfortable with extending the Jaguars’ routes and having Lawrence throw deeper, and his performance hasn’t dropped off as a result. From 2022 to 2023 he lifted his Intended Air Yards from 7.4 to 8.2 yards per attempt, all while keeping his completions within 1 percent of accuracy. This is a predictor for a player who is able to shoulder a bigger load, and that should lift again in 2024.
In each of the last two years he’s also had to contend with a unit that drops A LOT of passes — 64 to be precise, which is almost on par with how many drops Patrick Mahomes has had to contend with in Kansas City, throwing to his island of misfit toys.
So, if we work under the assumption that Lawrence will take a step forward again this year (which is a fair bet), it would put him around the 4,300 passing yard mark, with anywhere between 25 and 30 passing touchdowns. This would put him on par with the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
Again, this is a guy who is being paid the 11th highest yearly salary among quarterbacks. When you are in a position where a 24-year-old QB is on his second contract, locked in for five years, playing on par with the top-5 at his position, but paying him less — that’s a huge win. Here’s where Lawrence slots in among the highest paid QBs:
It’s difficult to make a strict comparison between players operating in difference offenses, with differing personnels — but anecdotally you could make an easy argument for Lawrence over Kirk Cousins, Deshaun Watson, or Daniel Jones, while pitching a decent case that he’s better than Jared Goff and Jalen Hurts.
All this at fairly low AAV money which seems like splitting hairs right now, but will be magnified with a growing cap where quarterbacks will be paid more than Lawrence, which will allow for the Jaguars to out-spend on other positions.
Jacksonville got in on the ground floor to get this deal done early, and it was smart as hell. In two or three years we’ll be wondering how Lawrence was inked for so little, much like the Bills did with Josh Allen and his extension.
When a front office is smart for long enough the wins follow. The Jaguars are on the precipice of something special.
