With yet another official report showing a further steep reduction in crime, why aren’t Democrats bragging?
Murder rates are plummeting after a dramatic surge in 2010, during former President Trump’s last year in office. Violence is near a 50-year low. And it’s not by accident. Over the past three-and-a-half years, President Biden has signed into law stiffer gun laws, funded more cops, stood up crime prevention programs and demanded greater accountability for both people who commit bad acts and police who sometimes go astray.
On guns, Biden and Congress passed the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, an unheralded law that is the most significant gun safety legislation in 30 years. It included more and better criminal background checks on gun sales, the first-ever law to crack down on illegal gun traffickers and funds for violence intervention programs and mental health services in communities. The act’s background check provision gave Biden the authority to close the dangerous gun show loophole by executive order; the gun trafficking statute has already resulted in 250 prosecutions.
On law enforcement, Biden and congressional Democrats increased spending on the two most critical local police initiatives: the COPS program, so cities and counties can hire more police, and Byrne grants, which can be spent on everything from police training to community crime prevention programs. In both instances, spending under Biden is nearly double compared to the Trump years.
As for prevention, dotted throughout Biden’s legislative wins are initiatives that keep kids off the streets, help those suffering from mental illness find treatment, treat substance abuse as a health issue and confiscate fentanyl at the border. Coupled with a concerted push to end harsh prison sentences for non-violent and low-level drug offenders, crime is coming down without a commensurate increase in incarceration rates.
But voters are still concerned about crime and blame Democrats when they don’t feel safe, as we saw in a Third Way and Center for American Progress Action Fund national survey conducted by Global Strategy Group last October. Despite dropping crime rates, 70 percent said crime was increasing and 82 percent called it a top or major priority for them. What’s more, voters said they trust Republicans by 8 points more when it comes to reducing crime. In a more recent poll by Democracy Corps, the trust gap was 16 points.
Why do Democrats get the blame despite the record? Because Democrats’ gut instinct is to avoid talking about crime, since it exposes intraparty divisions about policing and sentencing. As a result, crime has been a political weak point for Democrats for years.
It’s time to shed this hesitancy and lean in. Democrats can’t ignore a supermajority of voters who say safety is extremely important to them. When Black, Latino and Asian voters say crime is their second most important concern (after inflation), as the Democracy Corps poll finds, it’s time to speak up.
Here’s the good news for Democrats: Our polling found a crime message that works for all parts of the party, along with swing voters who could make the difference in November. It’s accountability and prevention: holding violent criminals accountable for their actions and investing in prevention so crime doesn’t occur in the first place.
Importantly, talking about accountability doesn’t alienate Democrats’ base of voters of color. While Democrats and Black voters were more partial toward prevention measures, they still showed overwhelming support for increasing police presence and improving community-police relationships.
This is the big-tent crime message Democrats need to win in 2024 and beyond. It solves a major Democratic vulnerability, which is that voters largely support mental health services, after-school programs, gun safety measures and poverty provisions but don’t think Democrats care enough about holding criminals accountable. When asked which party they associate with accountability measures, it was Republicans by a landslide.
Voters are wise. They know crime can be a result of systemic problems, but they also say people need to take responsibility for their actions. They want a balanced approach of accountability and prevention. They believe that would make their communities safer.
The fact is, that’s what Democrats are doing. They are already walking the walk; they just need to talk the talk.
Jim Kessler is executive vice president and Kylie Murdock is a policy adviser for Third Way, a center-left think tank in Washington, D.C.
