Research on risk assessment model and simulation of online group polarization in emergencies

by Guoqiang Lu, Fang Liu

This study proposes a framework for the risk structure of group polarization in the online information of sudden public health incidents, as well as the causes and constraints of group polarization distributed in the ternary space. Then, combining the above two and based on the concept of phase change space, a simulation model of group polarization of online information in sudden public health incidents was constructed by reflecting the risk of group polarization with the number of network users who hold extreme views. The system dynamics simulation of the model is carried out by using the software Anylogic, and predict the evolution trend of the model from the perspective of simulation. The research results indicate that the model built in this study can effectively simulate the formation and dissemination of extreme opinions in the online public opinion of public health emergencies. The vital factors or constraints on the group polarization include emotional guidance, heat reduction, as well as and life pressure.