The Grammy for Best New Artist is an anointing from the industry, a vote of confidence in the next big thing. That said, winning Best New Artist is sometimes a years-long project; for instance, Victoria Monet was already established in the industry as a songwriter, while Chance the Rapper already had a few mixtapes under his belt by the time he won. Still, breaking out is hard, and sometimes it takes a few tries to do so. This year the slate of possible contenders for nominations in the category largely fall into this category: artists who have been bubbling up for a while and finally got their big breaks this year. Let’s consider the contenders.
First, there’s the possible eligibility of pop breakout Sabrina Carpenter. Let’s be clear: Carpenter is not new. She has been putting out music since 2014, to somewhat limited commercial success. However, she has exploded in the past two years, and in 2024 she seems to have become a mainstream presence in the industry. She started the year with her hit “Feather” off the deluxe edition of her mainstream breakout album “Emails I Can’t Send Fwd.” The track topped pop radio, becoming her first to do so and her second pop airplay top-10 hit, after “Nonsense” in late 2022 and early 2023.
To top that off, Carpenter’s huge hit this year is “Espresso,” which topped the Spotify charts and so far has peaked inside the top five on the Hot 100. The catchy pop tune is sure to be noticed by voters, at the very least. Her promotion has been wild, with stops including “Saturday Night Live” and a featured spot alongside Taylor Swift on the “Eras Tour.” This is undoubtedly the year when Carpenter broke out, but will voters consider her previous work minor enough to classify her as a true new artist? We’ll have to wait and see, but if she qualifies, she might win with ease.
If not Carpenter, then all eyes are on Benson Boone, the balladeer with one of the biggest hits of the year: “Beautiful Things.” Boone is, admittedly, less of a media personality than Carpenter, but his style is right up the Grammys’ alley. Plus, with “Beautiful Things” being a huge contender for wins in other categories based on popularity and likeability, Boone might be an easy bet in Best New Artist. It also helps that he isn’t a one-hit wonder: his song “Slow It Down” is steadily growing on radio and has peaked in the top 40 on the Hot 100, and he has other streaming hits like “In The Stars” and “Ghost Town,” both with over 300 million streams on Spotify. Boone’s debut album, “Fireworks and Rollerblades,” has also done quite well, debuting inside the top 10 on the Billboard 200 and spending multiple weeks in that region. That said, Boone will have to fight off another balladeer: Teddy Swims, of “Lose Control” fame. Swims is in a good position, not only due to how massive his single is, but because he’s already notching another airplay hit with “The Door,” which is rising on Adult Pop radio. Both vocalists are serious contenders.
Another viral sensation is alt-pop star Chappell Roan, who has seen her debut album, “The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess,” rise higher and higher each week. Roan currently has a hit single with “Good Luck, Babe!,” which is growing into a big summer smash. What sets Roan apart from others are her charisma and personality, as well as the candid sapphic themes in her music. Roan has also done a great job of promoting her music, including a popular appearance on NPR’s “Tiny Desk Concert,” as well as Coachella and “The Late Show.” Similarly, alt-pop star Djo (also known as actor Joe Keery from “Stranger Things” and “Fargo”) has experienced success with his single “End of Beginning,” which reached number-11 on the Hot 100.
A few other contenders outside of the pop world are worth noting. Sierra Ferrell recently got a handful of Americana Honors nominations, and her album “Trail of Flowers” has been very buzzy, so she might be on her way to a nomination. Rapper Flo Milli has been simmering for a while, but the success of her top-20 hit “Never Lose Me” might finally give her her big break on the awards circuit. Last but not least, rock band The Last Dinner Party have achieved prominence this year with their album “Prelude to Ecstasy,” which is one of the year’s most acclaimed. Plus, their songs “Nothing Matters” was a big hit in the rock world, peaking in the top 20 on the Rock Airplay chart and in the top five on the Adult Alternative Airplay chart.
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